#Estimate

Second, the point of lockdown appears strongly linked to eventual excess deaths. Here, we show the relationship between an estimate of infections on lockdown day and eventual excess deaths9/ As
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1) For the 'it is just the flu' crowed. Without drastic countermeasures, deaths from seasonal influenza in the US between 2010 and 2019 varied between 12,000 and 61,000. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html SARS-CoV-2
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By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump's base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation's voting age citizens,
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Very important thread for the #justtheflu bros, if any still exist. 60k deaths more like 15k actual death certificates, rest based upon excess mortality. #COVID19 already far higher.https://twitter.com/AndrewNoymer/status/1252637412309651456 We have
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A THREAD.Trigger warning some photos maybe too much to handle.Here are some photos after Super Typhoon #Yolanda struck my province (Leyte) way back Nov. 8 2013 and now another super
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Another day, another brutally flawed study going around flu bro (bra?) twit. Here's the study: the author's tested residents of Santa Clara Co, CA to see if they had antibodies
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Niche post: Doing a lit review, it's amazing how confused the literature seemed to be about identification in BLP (demand side) given how quickly it became the workhorse. As recently
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A new systematic review showing the superiority of motor control exercises for low back pain has just come out, and I thought I would highlight some aspects of this review
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Another long, technical thread to end the day! @BlueCrossNC is on a mission to transform health care. This means sharing how we tackled problems that have stymied efforts at payment
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In 2002, Neil Ferguson forecast that up to 150,000 people could die from beef-borne mad cow disease. The final death toll in the UK was 177. In 2005, Neil Ferguson
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5/As things stand, the government’s 80% guarantee is to the lender – not the borrower. Anyone who takes out these loans – whose interest rate the government has not capped
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As of yesterday $UCO still needs to roll $200m of $CL_K to $CL_NAlso reasonable to assume they still need to roll same percentage of $1bn+ swap expo with $GS $RBC
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Let's extend the linear model (LM) in the directio of the GLM first. If you loosen up the normality assumption to instead allow Poisson, binomial, etc (members of the "exponential
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New preprint. We estimate the transmissibility of #SARSCoV2 lineages based on their genomic makeup. Overall, transmissibility of #SARSCoV2 went up over time, but fitness of individual clades tends to decay
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(1/n) We gathered and analysed genetic and epidemiological data related to the #COVID19 outbreak in #Iran to gauge its size in late Feb - early Mar and estimate the likely
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There's another huge crowd out in Portland tonight. I'd estimate 2,000 right now.To get things started, here's a sampling of some of the signs in the crowd. A chant, but
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