By my calc, in the past four years of Census data, non-college whites - Trump& #39;s base - have declined from 47.0% to 44.5% (-2.5%) of the nation& #39;s voting age citizens, including:
AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%)
FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%)
TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%)
AZ: 44.9% to 42.0% (-2.9%)
FL: 45.1% to 41.9% (-3.2%)
TX: 35.1% to 32.3% (-2.7%)
By my estimate, if turnout levels & partisan preferences among 1) non-college whites 2) college whites and 3) non-whites were to remain *constant* from 2016, Biden would flip:
Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
...based on demographic change alone.
Florida (29 EVs)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
...based on demographic change alone.