In 2002, Neil Ferguson forecast that up to 150,000 people could die from beef-borne mad cow disease. The final death toll in the UK was 177.

In 2005, Neil Ferguson predicted that bird flu might wipe out 150 million people. Yet less than 0.0002 per cent of that number – 282 victims – actually perished worldwide.

In a 2009 government estimate based on Neil Ferguson’s research, a “reasonable worst-case scenario” foretold of 65,000 Brits destined for the grave due to swine flu. As the National Review last week noted, he was out by just 64,543.

Despite his wayward form, it was again Neil Ferguson and his scientific advisory group colleagues to whom the UK government turned for expert opinions on likely coronavirus mortality rates.

Unless the strictest possible lockdown protocols were immediately adopted, they advised, Britain would lose 500,000 citizens. The US would lose two million. And Sweden would lose 40,000 by the start of May, and a further 60,000 during the following month.