#Probability

Adam Frank

AdamFrank4

1) One can use exoplanet data to modify Drake equation and ask: How bad must the odds of civilization-making be for Humans to be the only one in all cosmic

Isabella R. Ghement

IsabellaGhement

Several questions on Cross Validated asked about interpretation of estimated model coefficients in a binary logistic regression model, so I thought I would write a thread on some issues to

Ben Brewster

TreadAthletics

You have to be a little naive at the start of your journey. Don't be realistic. Instead tell yourself "why not me?" Believing your goals are possible, that's step #1.

Raj Mehta, MD

raj_mehta

1/ A tweetorial on false positives & transposing the conditional!Or why interpreting type 1 error can be so confusing.This is a common topic that overlaps in medical testing, data reporting,

Real Estate Momentum

REMNTM

Real estate: risk/return profiles. As per the tradeoff between risk and return, the amount of risk determines the degree of return. Although risk and return are proportionate to each other,

Sophia Gad-Nasr

Astropartigirl

Thought you all might like to know, say, the probability of a human passing through a wall. Yes? Yes, because #QuantumMechanics is fun! Let's begin! The set up: a barrier

Corporate Machiavelli (He / Him)

corporatemach

You should sieze power like your life depends on it.It does. In The Game of Power, the stakes have always been life and death, and they always will be. In

Michael Nielsen

michael_nielsen

Just dug up one of my favourite papers, one I haven't looked at in years! Richard Feynman's paper trying to make sense of negative probabilities: http://cds.cern.ch/record/154856/files/pre-27827.pdf?version=1 This might sound nuts.

Bill Miller

BillMiller_Epi

A few summary thoughts about test performance. 1/https://twitter.com/OSUPublicHealth/status/1245816635803480067 First, keep in mind that no diagnostic test is perfect. Clinicians always have to interpret the test in context. Tests can be

Michael McFaul

McFaul

So what happens in November if Trump claims that "Chinese disinformation" or "Chinese Communist Party hacking" caused him to lose a few swing states & he wont therefore recognize the

🔥 Kareem Carr 🔥

kareem_carr

Don't know what a P-VALUE is?Don't know why P-VALUES work?Don't know why sometimes P-VALUES don't work?THIS IS THE THREAD FOR YOU. DEFINITION OF A P-VALUE. Assume your theory is

Andrew Legget

AndrewLegget

Ok, haven’t had any new votes on this for a few days so let’s put an end to it.Sorry to say, 57% of you are wrong.https://twitter.com/andrewlegget/status/1386205397728382976 The question was ‘what

Seth Axen 🖥️🪓

sethaxen

Let's talk about the geometry of Jeffreys priors! A thread1/n Suppose we have a family of distributions parametrized continuously. Each distribution is a point on a statistical manifold. We can

A.M.

bhalomanush

This is a very confused thread arguing testing isn't perfect and therefore it should only be done where probability is high. But it's fundamentally flawed because you don't know where

Andrea Feller

AndreaFeller2

OK so here we go.When I order a test for your child as a pediatrician, I have to ensure that there is enough "pretest probability" or "index of suspicion", so

Mike Lindsay

mikeclindsay

A thread about satellite collision probability The FCC & others consider "satellites equipped with propulsion capability to have a collision risk of zero or near zero."So let's ask ourselves: is that