Ok, haven’t had any new votes on this for a few days so let’s put an end to it.

Sorry to say, 57% of you are wrong. https://twitter.com/andrewlegget/status/1386205397728382976

The question was ‘what was most likely?’.

Both scenarios required Jane to be a lawyer. However, B also required a secondary condition of being a member of a political party.

So, let’s break this down mathematically.

The most likely event would have the highest probability (p).

A = (p) lawyer
B = (p) lawyer x (p) party member.

Considering (p) lawyer is the same for both, the only way B more likely is if (p) party > 100%.

So, it’s a trick question?

Yes, and that’s the point. By framing the question a specific way, I was able to trigger a response which seemed correct but through analysis is clearly not. How many other situations are there where this same thing is happening?

Remember, the more conditions that are required, the lower the probability of that event happening must be.

In investing, we are swamped by information and data that we need to create a thesis. We also need to battle this auto-brain which is forever trying to trip us up. Think more, think in logic, think probabilistically.