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A thread about satellite collision probability 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛰️" title="Satellit" aria-label="Emoji: Satellit">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💥" title="Symbol für eine Kollision" aria-label="Emoji: Symbol für eine Kollision">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛰️" title="Satellit" aria-label="Emoji: Satellit">
The FCC & others consider "satellites equipped with propulsion capability to have a collision risk of zero or near zero."
So let& #39;s ask ourselves: is that a reasonable assumption?
https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-20-588A1.pdf">https://docs.fcc.gov/public/at... (see paragraph 20)
The FCC & others consider "satellites equipped with propulsion capability to have a collision risk of zero or near zero."
So let& #39;s ask ourselves: is that a reasonable assumption?
https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-20-588A1.pdf">https://docs.fcc.gov/public/at... (see paragraph 20)
Well, if met with a collision risk (Pc) of 1/1000, an operator might avoid it with a maneuver (they don& #39;t have to), thus buying the risk down to 1/1,000,000.
But if Pc is initially 1/100,000, the operator likely won& #39;t maneuver at all! That& #39;s not zero risk, but is it "near zero?"
But if Pc is initially 1/100,000, the operator likely won& #39;t maneuver at all! That& #39;s not zero risk, but is it "near zero?"
Depends on the # of times you take that risk!
Math tells us that the probability of having NO collisions = (1 - Pc)^N, where N is the # of times you "roll the dice."
So if Pc = 1/100,000 and you roll thehttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎲" title="Würfelspiel" aria-label="Emoji: Würfelspiel"> 100 times, the probability of no collisions = 99.9%.
Not bad, right?
Math tells us that the probability of having NO collisions = (1 - Pc)^N, where N is the # of times you "roll the dice."
So if Pc = 1/100,000 and you roll the
Not bad, right?
Well, according to estimates, we could be rolling the https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎲" title="Würfelspiel" aria-label="Emoji: Würfelspiel"> 8 times/hour soon. https://twitter.com/SineadOS1/status/1186675327801667589">https://twitter.com/SineadOS1...
In other words, that& #39;s 70,000 times/year. And the probability of NO collisions with a Pc = 1/100,000? About 50%.
A coin flip. Every year.
So, it& #39;s not "near zero" either.
In other words, that& #39;s 70,000 times/year. And the probability of NO collisions with a Pc = 1/100,000? About 50%.
A coin flip. Every year.
So, it& #39;s not "near zero" either.
What do you think is an acceptable collision risk level, when considering all satellites in orbit, on an annual basis?
(I suppose I don& #39;t have enough followers to justify a poll, but oh well!)
(I suppose I don& #39;t have enough followers to justify a poll, but oh well!)
