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Excited to share this new COVID modeling script:
It applies various age-stratified IFR estimates to calculate the expected overall IFR in a given country. It& #39;s based on demographics (countries population pyramids): https://github.com/mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr
Many">https://github.com/mbevand/c... interesting findings—read on
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It applies various age-stratified IFR estimates to calculate the expected overall IFR in a given country. It& #39;s based on demographics (countries population pyramids): https://github.com/mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr
Many">https://github.com/mbevand/c... interesting findings—read on
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First off, I use five different sources estimating the age-stratified Infection Fatality Ratio of COVID-19:
1. ENE-COVID
2. US CDC
3. Verity et al.
4. Levin et al.
5. Gudbjartsson et al.
If you know of more sources, let me know and I& #39;ll add them to my script
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1. ENE-COVID
2. US CDC
3. Verity et al.
4. Levin et al.
5. Gudbjartsson et al.
If you know of more sources, let me know and I& #39;ll add them to my script
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So, what do we find?
The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al., are relatively consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. Levin et al. is up to 2-fold higher than the others, depending on the country.
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The overall IFR estimates, with the exception of Levin et al., are relatively consistent with each other, usually within 30-40%. Levin et al. is up to 2-fold higher than the others, depending on the country.
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The country with the oldest population is expected to have the highest overall IFR: Japan at 1.3-1.6% (excluding Levin et al.)
The one with the youngest pop. is expected to have the lowest overall IFR: Uganda at 0.074-0.147%
>10-fold difference between these 2 countries!
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The one with the youngest pop. is expected to have the lowest overall IFR: Uganda at 0.074-0.147%
>10-fold difference between these 2 countries!
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In fact, the young age of the population of Africa is a major factor explaining their small number of deaths. We find IFR=0.13-0.24% for Africa, compared to IFR=0.8-1.4% in Europe, a ~5-fold difference!
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Using ENE-COVID data from June 2020, our code accurately predicts an overall IFR of 0.669% in the United States.
This is very close to the last 2 estimates from the US CDC:
- 0.65% published in July 2020 https://web.archive.org/web/20200712055258/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
-">https://web.archive.org/web/20200... 0.738% calculated from their Sep 2020 update
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This is very close to the last 2 estimates from the US CDC:
- 0.65% published in July 2020 https://web.archive.org/web/20200712055258/https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
-">https://web.archive.org/web/20200... 0.738% calculated from their Sep 2020 update
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Head over to https://github.com/mbevand/covid19-age-stratified-ifr">https://github.com/mbevand/c... for full documentation and results table
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Here& #39;s a summary of the expected overall IFR for each continent.
The youngest continents should fare the best, thanks to their young population:
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The youngest continents should fare the best, thanks to their young population:
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Finally, the real-world overall IFR will dependent on many factors: varying prevalence among age groups, underlying health conditions, access to healthcare, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, etc.
But I expect the age of the population to be one of the most important factors.
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But I expect the age of the population to be one of the most important factors.
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