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Ben Casselman

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So, here's where I am on the #JobsReport right now:First, we should never read too much into any one report, *especially* in moments like now when so much is changing.

Honestly, at first glance I have no idea what to make of the jobs report. Not just that it was weak, but the particular way it was weak, is perplexing.

Disposable income surged a record 23.6% in March as another round of relief checks poured into Americans' bank accounts. Consumer spending rose a more modest 4.2%.https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/personal-income-and-outlays-march-2021 Tota

Since we all had such fun with GDP math this week, why don't we close it out with a quick thread on how today's monthly spending numbers set us up

On Thursday, @BEA_News will release its preliminary estimate for third-quarter economic growth. Given the timing, it's going to get a ton of attention. It also has the potential to be

I'm seeing a lot of analysts arguing today's jobs numbers aren't so bad because the slowdown was driven by the late/partial reopening of schools.A thread: On the one hand, this

How many Americans are receiving unemployment benefits right now? As crazy as it sounds, the answer is, "Nobody knows."https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/16/business/economy/unemployment-claims-numbers.html One thing that's clear

Another 1.6 million people filed for unemployment benefits last week (833k regular state claims, not seasonally adjusted, and 759k under the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program).https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/03/business/stock-ma

IMPORTANT NOTE: Starting this week, the Labor Department will be changing its approach to seasonal adjustment for weekly unemployment claims. And the Times will be changing the way we report

The U.S. is facing a tidal wave of small business failures this fall if the federal government doesn’t provide a new round of financial assistance.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/01/business/economy/small-businesses-coronavirus.html?refer

Tomorrow morning, @BEA_News will release its prelim. estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product. Not much drama on the headline: It will show a historic decline in economic output.But the way

In his newsletter this morning, @DLeonhardt hits on something I've been thinking a lot about lately: What counts as good (economic) news right now?https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/briefing/how-badly-is-america-doing.html When the May