In his newsletter this morning, @DLeonhardt hits on something I've been thinking a lot about lately: What counts as good (economic) news right now? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/briefing/how-badly-is-america-doing.html

When the May jobs report showed a surprising rise in employment, many of us who focus on the economic aspects of this crisis took that as a clear positive. There were LOTS of caveats (unemployment is still high, gov't support is fading, etc). But at least the recovery had begun!

A month later, we got another surprisingly large gain in jobs, but it's harder to cheer this time. Because we've ALSO seen a huge resurgence of the virus, which seems to be (at least in part) a direct result of the reopening that led to that job growth.

And now we're seeing the economic consequences of that resurgence (as well as the health consequences). States are pulling back on reopening. Consumers are staying home. Businesses are closing back down and people are losing their jobs. Many of those losses will be permanent.

To be clear: Throughout this crisis, economists have overwhelmingly argued that (as @Austan_Goolsbee memorably put it) "the virus is the boss": An economic recovery is impossible without addressing the public health crisis first.

So the idea that a too-rapid reopening would have negative consequences for both public health and the economy was well-established and widely accepted among economists. We wrote about it repeatedly.
Here's one sadly prescient piece from @jimtankersley: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/business/economy/coronavirus-economic-inequality.html

Still, (and I'll switch to first-person singular here to avoid impugning anyone else) I didn't really question that the faster-than-expected bounceback in jobs was basically positive.

Maybe it was the weeks of talking to laid-off workers worried about making rent. Maybe it was the experience of covering the last recession, when short-term unemployment hardened into long-term joblessness. Maybe "more jobs = good" is just baked into an econ reporter's mindset.

Even now, I'm not sure how to think about this. Should we react differently to a rebound in construction than one in restaurants? Do we need to distinguish between jobs in places with strong rules and norms around mask-wearing and social distancing vs those without?

I don't have the answers. But the virus is forcing me to rethink what we mean by good economic news at a time when short-term gains can bring long-term consequences.

I should note in closing that many epidemiologists/public health experts I follow on here were more skeptical of the "yay jobs!" narrative from the outset. A good lesson in broadening my pool of sources.