My analysis of this week's elections for the Observer - Brexit may be done but the aftershocks of the referendum are still reverberating through England in the form of shifting political alignments, with class divides declining and education divides rising https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/09/labour-wants-to-move-on-from-brexit-but-english-voters-just-wont-let-them

The results suggest that "Leave" and "Remain" - the potent political identities forged in the referendum - have endured despite the pandemic year we have all just lived through. Politics is not going back to pre 2016 patterns (or at least, not for now)

Some really important caveats to this though:
1. Half of these elections were last fought pre EU referendum in May 2016 - this magnifies the "Brexit effect"
2. Pattern in 2017 seats shows Labour advancing as much in Remain areas as it declines in Leave areas

3. The patterns in Remain England reveal a further problem for Labour - the strong Green advance in this election cycle has come in the same places Lab did best. This likely blunted Labour's advance in such areas

Greens average 15% or more in the areas with most graduates and in most Remain voting area, up 5-7 points on last elections, and with many more candidates standing.

Would have been a much better weekend for Labour if they could have consolidated more of that support

Labour's challenge is not just about renewing appeal in more Leave leaning areas where older voters with low qualifications congregate.

The party also needs to find a way to consolidate support in Remain leaning graduate heavy areas, which often split 3 ways (Lab, LD, Grn)

And one problem with *that* is that the kinds of voters attracted to Greens (and to LDs) tend to be voters with little or no partisan attachment to Labour - partisanship in general is weaker among younger, graduate, liberal voters (Remain partisanship perhaps an exception)

Such voters - particularly Green curious voters - were very attracted by Labour under Corbyn. People forget that while Cons attracted about 60% of 2015 UKIP vote in 2017, Lab in part offset this by attracting 80% of 2015 Green vote.

Green-curious voters attracted by Labour under Corbyn have no particular loyalty to Labour and many won't stick with the party if they feel it isn't offering them anything or trying to appeal to them. Pitches focussed on "red wall" Leave voters risk alienating them

Of course, local elections may magnify this, providing an opportunity for protest voting, while in general elections many may be recovered by focusing on need to defeat Conservatives. But highlights how complicated Labour's task is.