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There we go.
There’s one question around this I have done a few calculations on. That is: Do we have enough supply to vaccinate all adults, even with this new factor in play?
The answer: yes we do. It shouldn’t even slow us down. https://twitter.com/shaunlintern/status/1390386829493481474
There’s one question around this I have done a few calculations on. That is: Do we have enough supply to vaccinate all adults, even with this new factor in play?
The answer: yes we do. It shouldn’t even slow us down. https://twitter.com/shaunlintern/status/1390386829493481474
A little on why I think this.
Up until a week ago, the numbers were indicating that an under-40s AZ restriction would mean delay. Pfizer was coming in to plan, but we would hit the end of the 40m order before getting <20s done.
There was a big unknown remaining though: Moderna.
Up until a week ago, the numbers were indicating that an under-40s AZ restriction would mean delay. Pfizer was coming in to plan, but we would hit the end of the 40m order before getting <20s done.
There was a big unknown remaining though: Moderna.
The Scottish supply document - so unreasonably accurate so far - stops at the end of May. And Moderna is only trickling in by that time. What happens after that?
We've ordered 17m doses, and pushing forward this trickle gets you to 2m. Maybe more is coming in June, maybe not?
We've ordered 17m doses, and pushing forward this trickle gets you to 2m. Maybe more is coming in June, maybe not?
Then there was news from Moderna that Canada and the UK would be getting less than originally hoped in May. That looked pretty bad.
But then two things happened.
First, Canada have confirmed that its Moderna are back to plan.
Second, we have another supply document. To June.
But then two things happened.
First, Canada have confirmed that its Moderna are back to plan.
Second, we have another supply document. To June.
So - with the greatest of respect to @worcesternews - I have a rather different interpretation of the leaked supply slide than the one written up in their story. https://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/19265761.leaked-nhs-slide-suggests-drop-first-vaccine-doses-midlands-coming-weeks/?ref=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
What this shows is *first* dose allocations to the NHS Midlands area. For those following along with a calculator, the NHS Midlands area has 10,601,877 people in it (precisely).
And supply to NHS Regions, like supply to the four nations, is allocated per head.
And supply to NHS Regions, like supply to the four nations, is allocated per head.
The gap in AZ is fine. Enough AZ has already been sent to the regions to do over-40s - it stores fine.
The big slugs of Pfizer are also not new. This is just releasing the stockpile that's been building for weeks now - although very aggressively.
What's new is the Moderna.
The big slugs of Pfizer are also not new. This is just releasing the stockpile that's been building for weeks now - although very aggressively.
What's new is the Moderna.
This slide shows a further ramp-up of Moderna 1st doses. That's enough, together with the Pfizer supplies we already knew about, and now confirmed here, to offer the under 40s mRNA without missing a beat.
I'm not saying it's easy. It has to be done carefully. But it fits.
I'm not saying it's easy. It has to be done carefully. But it fits.
One more note. For obsessives only.
If this is all right (well, all except the spelling on the slide) then what on earth is that big purple slug of AZ doing in mid-June?
This is *first* doses remember.
If this is all right (well, all except the spelling on the slide) then what on earth is that big purple slug of AZ doing in mid-June?
This is *first* doses remember.
