Mumbai #COVID19 update. A sad landmark: officially 0.1% of the city have died of COVID-19. The so-called "population fatality rate" of COVID-19 in the city is now at 0.1%. Daily cases peaked ~3 weeks ago, and test positivity has fallen a bit, but deaths have not yet peaked. (1/4)

Hospitalisations seem to have stabilised, but no clear peak yet. It seems the lag between cases and deaths is longer than the 18 days I'd estimated. 18-day delayed CFR has stopped falling, but 21-day delayed CFR is still falling slightly. Hopefully deaths will peak soon. (2/4)

Estimated slum and nonslum cases show an interesting pattern. Slum cases fell earlier and faster: weekly slum cases are at about 45% of peak values. Nonslum cases started falling later: weekly nonslum cases are now at about 60% of peak values. These are estimates. (3/4)

Returning to a possible vaccine effect: the % of over-60s in the city's fatalities continues to fall. In the latest week it is 62%. This means this week's death toll in the elderly is less than half what we would expect based on the under-60s. (4/4)
https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion/covid-19-pandemic-mumbai-trends-deaths-cases-numbers-senior-citizens-young-population-vaccination-efficacy