Hostage-to-fortune prediction for the UK: when the Israel-style collapse in COVID cases happens (a.k.a herd immunity), it will happen first in Wales.

And it'll happen first there not because they are getting more vaccine - they aren't - but because they're using it better. (1/6)

Here are the current uptake numbers by age-band for Wales. We don't have such up-to-date numbers for the rest of the UK, but by any sensible measure, Wales is running more than a week ahead of anyone else (look at the 40s and 30s!) (2/6)

But, as explained here, Wales is managing this roll-out despite getting *exactly* the same allocation of vaccine stocks as everyone else. It's fair-share by population. https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1382946244100775936?s=20

Wales are doing this mainly by pulling in their allocated stocks faster and pushing them into arms faster. (They're also proud of low wastage, but this is a smaller effect).

In contrast, the rest of the UK has doses (~6m of them by my count) sitting in warehouses. (4/6)

Running a chilled supply chain is hard. You need some buffer to smooth supply and avoid stockouts.
Second doses need to be allocated.
Deliveries may be disrupted, especially given manufacturing delays and international tensions over vaccine.
Many things can happen. (5/6)

But Wales are busy proving that a more aggressive, leaner, approach works and has huge rewards.

The rest of the UK should be switching to Wales' model and doing so urgently - it'll save lives, reduce sickness and allow the rest of us get back to normal life. (6/ends)