Thoughtful 🧵on schools from a public health insider. Why high community transmission is key:
"As cases increase, contact tracing is going to go the way of the dodo again. This includes contact tracing for schools ... When that goes, I don't think schools can be open anymore."
In other words, you can have a "relatively" safe protocol that works fine when case rates are low. But once a region hits high rates, the PH protocol begins to implode due to resource constraints. Contact tracing is not scalable, it's human.
I don't believe the Ontario agent-based modelling that supported school opening included this factor. That may help explain why "bottom-up" simulations have a disconnect with "top-down" statistical cross-country modelling. Given the known contact tracing issues, this seems impt.
This is why I have focused most of my school comments on community transmission risk levels. They are like floodwaters, once they reach a certain stage there are not enough sand bags.
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