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TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 
Transmission in schools happens in EVERY jurisdiction in world. In saying "transmission is low", @DrBonnieHenry admits it does happen.
FACT: Children & staff are catching COVID19 in #bced.
@CDCofBC refuses to say how much. Let's
Transmission in schools happens in EVERY jurisdiction in world. In saying "transmission is low", @DrBonnieHenry admits it does happen.
FACT: Children & staff are catching COVID19 in #bced.
@CDCofBC refuses to say how much. Let's
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 2
@BCschoolCovid has tracked school exposure notices meticulously. As of Apr 10:
School Exposure Events to date: 4,713
Schools Affected to date: 1,128
Schools with multiple exposure events: 734
VOC exposures: 75
@BCschoolCovid has tracked school exposure notices meticulously. As of Apr 10:
School Exposure Events to date: 4,713
Schools Affected to date: 1,128
Schools with multiple exposure events: 734
VOC exposures: 75
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 3
No kid case data Apr 10. But let's use Apr 9 b/c my analysis will be "back of the envelope" anyway.
As of Apr 9, 16,063 kids 0-19 have tested positive for #COVID19. Don't forget - that's with negligible asymptomatic testing.
No kid case data Apr 10. But let's use Apr 9 b/c my analysis will be "back of the envelope" anyway.
As of Apr 9, 16,063 kids 0-19 have tested positive for #COVID19. Don't forget - that's with negligible asymptomatic testing.
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 4
Not all kids 0-19 in school. Prov says 0-19 age is 19% of pop'n. Assume school age is 15%.
So, as of Apr 9, let's say:
12,681 school age kids tested positive. How many from #bced?
(BTW Probably > 1,500 suffered #LongCovid.)
Not all kids 0-19 in school. Prov says 0-19 age is 19% of pop'n. Assume school age is 15%.
So, as of Apr 9, let's say:
12,681 school age kids tested positive. How many from #bced?
(BTW Probably > 1,500 suffered #LongCovid.)
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 5
Let's play w/ schools w/ multi-exposures (734 by Apr 10). Assuming different AVERAGES of transmission scale, you can see how schools could count for 12% to 29% or more of kid cases (
)
(2 kids = original kid + 2 transmissions)
Let's play w/ schools w/ multi-exposures (734 by Apr 10). Assuming different AVERAGES of transmission scale, you can see how schools could count for 12% to 29% or more of kid cases (
)(2 kids = original kid + 2 transmissions)
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 6
But wait - #VariantsOfConcern (VOCs) are VERY transmissible. 100% household attack rate. Probably higher in-school transmission as well.
Assume every VOC notice (75) represents avg 10 new kid cases. That's 750 kids (6%!! of kids).
But wait - #VariantsOfConcern (VOCs) are VERY transmissible. 100% household attack rate. Probably higher in-school transmission as well.
Assume every VOC notice (75) represents avg 10 new kid cases. That's 750 kids (6%!! of kids).
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 7
So, adding in the #VariantsOfConcern impact,
we have that
#bced in-school transmission could account for 18% to 34% of school-age kid cases so far.
So, adding in the #VariantsOfConcern impact,
we have that
#bced in-school transmission could account for 18% to 34% of school-age kid cases so far.
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 8
But wait! I forgot the teachers. Let's assume 1/3 of the schools with multi-exposure (conservative) and ALL VOC exposures involve one teacher or school adult.
That's 245 teachers 'regular' and 75 from VOC = 320 teachers.
But wait! I forgot the teachers. Let's assume 1/3 of the schools with multi-exposure (conservative) and ALL VOC exposures involve one teacher or school adult.
That's 245 teachers 'regular' and 75 from VOC = 320 teachers.
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 9
This doesn't even consider secondary attack rates. UK data showed kids bring #COVID19 home and infect their households. VOCs 100% hshld attack.
Now we are into '000s more cases CATALYSED BY SCHOOLS. https://twitter.com/lisa_iannattone/status/1374811739854880773?s=20
This doesn't even consider secondary attack rates. UK data showed kids bring #COVID19 home and infect their households. VOCs 100% hshld attack.
Now we are into '000s more cases CATALYSED BY SCHOOLS. https://twitter.com/lisa_iannattone/status/1374811739854880773?s=20
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 10
My calcs are hypoth'l but reasonable given what we know. #bced is PRIMARILY responsible for say 2,200 to 4,420 kid cases (w/VOCs) and maybe of #COVID19.
Maybe more - max assumption there is 5 kids per school with multiple exposure.
My calcs are hypoth'l but reasonable given what we know. #bced is PRIMARILY responsible for say 2,200 to 4,420 kid cases (w/VOCs) and maybe of #COVID19.
Maybe more - max assumption there is 5 kids per school with multiple exposure.
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 11
The whole #bced "schools are safe" line is never backed up quantitatively.
Based on data we do have, and knowledge from around the world, BC SCHOOLS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR #COVID19 IN KIDS AND FOR SECONDARY CASES.
The whole #bced "schools are safe" line is never backed up quantitatively.
Based on data we do have, and knowledge from around the world, BC SCHOOLS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR #COVID19 IN KIDS AND FOR SECONDARY CASES.
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 12
@DrBonnieHenry and @CDCofBC position that "schools are safe" has lulled parents into thinking it's okay for kids to mix willy-nilly. I would argue that, morally, then, #bced is responsible for almost ALL kid cases.
@DrBonnieHenry and @CDCofBC position that "schools are safe" has lulled parents into thinking it's okay for kids to mix willy-nilly. I would argue that, morally, then, #bced is responsible for almost ALL kid cases.
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 13
Why do we care if kids get #COVID19 (besides infecting their households?). Because kids get #LongCOVID. https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1380071230284398595?s=20
Why do we care if kids get #COVID19 (besides infecting their households?). Because kids get #LongCOVID. https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1380071230284398595?s=20
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 14
There's also potential cardiac and respiratory damage. American Academy of Pediatricians recommends that ALL kids who've tested positive, even if they were asymptomatic, be assessed. https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1379499537874657281?s=20
There's also potential cardiac and respiratory damage. American Academy of Pediatricians recommends that ALL kids who've tested positive, even if they were asymptomatic, be assessed. https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1379499537874657281?s=20
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 15
There are also distressing neuro and psych impacts emerging. 1/3 of BC kids who had #COVID could have neuro/psych problems w/i 6 months (> 4,100 BC kids so far based on KNOWN infections). https://twitter.com/ReutersScience/status/1379745972394332161?s=20
There are also distressing neuro and psych impacts emerging. 1/3 of BC kids who had #COVID could have neuro/psych problems w/i 6 months (> 4,100 BC kids so far based on KNOWN infections). https://twitter.com/ReutersScience/status/1379745972394332161?s=20
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 16
Why care? B/c kids infected in #bced can infect parent. 40,000 kids in US have lost a parent to COVID.
W/ #VariantsOfConcern, docs say more parents dying, saying last good-bye to kids via iPad. This broke me. https://twitter.com/ABdoc4patients/status/1380970627931140097?s=20
Why care? B/c kids infected in #bced can infect parent. 40,000 kids in US have lost a parent to COVID.
W/ #VariantsOfConcern, docs say more parents dying, saying last good-bye to kids via iPad. This broke me. https://twitter.com/ABdoc4patients/status/1380970627931140097?s=20
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 17
Kids catch #COVID19 in #bced. Likely significant amt, based on our limited data & global knowledge.
Kids get #LongCovid. Evidence of long-term damage. Kids are infecting parents and parents are dying.
Kids catch #COVID19 in #bced. Likely significant amt, based on our limited data & global knowledge.
Kids get #LongCovid. Evidence of long-term damage. Kids are infecting parents and parents are dying.
TRANSMISSION OF #COVID19 IN BC SCHOOLS - 18 (END)
My calcs are hypothetical and rough. But the evidence is there. #bced is directly infecting kids (and teachers) and catalysing enormous secondary and community transmission.
Time for @CDCofBC, @JM_Whiteside to come clean.
My calcs are hypothetical and rough. But the evidence is there. #bced is directly infecting kids (and teachers) and catalysing enormous secondary and community transmission.
Time for @CDCofBC, @JM_Whiteside to come clean.
