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What I think needs to be done to manage a third wave1. Act now
2. Group the Toronto-centred megaplex into one super-region and lock it down
3. Limit travel out of regions in lockdown to essential
4. Stay at Home order
5. Reduce current "essential businesses" by 50%.
6. Set lockdown release target based on science advice re low weekly case rates and Rt, not a set date. (eg <20 and <.8)
7. No indoor non-essential gatherings outside hshds, gathering-limited outside activity encouraged.
8. Curfews
9. Support closed businesses + job interruptions
7. No indoor non-essential gatherings outside hshds, gathering-limited outside activity encouraged.
8. Curfews
9. Support closed businesses + job interruptions
10. Paid leave for testing, isolation. Inspections and heavy fines for employers if symptomatic workers found at work
11. Other regions to be in three tiers depending on independent science based metrics: lockdown, pre-lockdown, and controlled. Restrictions to match.
11. Other regions to be in three tiers depending on independent science based metrics: lockdown, pre-lockdown, and controlled. Restrictions to match.
12. Close schools in lockdown and pre-lockdown areas
13. Accelerate and focus vaccinations to those at highest risk of dying (not infection) (primarily 60+). Accelerate further in highest weekly case rate regions and neighbourhoods.
13. Accelerate and focus vaccinations to those at highest risk of dying (not infection) (primarily 60+). Accelerate further in highest weekly case rate regions and neighbourhoods.
14. Seek emergency help from manufacturers and other countries like US to speed vaccine supply.
15. Use best science and risk analysis to expand focused vaccine coverage via dose interval and other levers.
15. Use best science and risk analysis to expand focused vaccine coverage via dose interval and other levers.
16. Be firm. Be clear. Science to lead communication. New independent CMOH. Ask everyone to bring their region down to the target levels and explain why it is best for all. Be swift, err on the side of greater restrictions at the first sign of explosive growth.
17. Let PHU's operationalize but lead with a single science-based plan and strict standards.
18. Divert resources quickly to where PHUs need the most help.
19. Boost testing, tracing and surveillance, establish strict isolation standards and penalties.
18. Divert resources quickly to where PHUs need the most help.
19. Boost testing, tracing and surveillance, establish strict isolation standards and penalties.
20. Execute provincial and US border restrictions to limit incoming spread (like Atlantic bubble). This would include rapid testing of US truckers, federal emergency order to stop international travel except most critical.
21. At 28 days, review and adapt as needed.
22. Keep public informed on tracking to goals daily, transparency on outbreaks.
23. Celebrate successes, acknowledge best regions, motivate everyone to reach the goal of a safe spring until vaccine reinforcements arrive.
22. Keep public informed on tracking to goals daily, transparency on outbreaks.
23. Celebrate successes, acknowledge best regions, motivate everyone to reach the goal of a safe spring until vaccine reinforcements arrive.
Are these harsh and costly? Yes
Are they needed? Yes
Will they hurt businesses and jobs? Much less if we act now and lockdown efficiently with emergency business and job supports.
Will they save many lives and let us return to greater freedom and normality sooner? Yes
Are they needed? Yes
Will they hurt businesses and jobs? Much less if we act now and lockdown efficiently with emergency business and job supports.
Will they save many lives and let us return to greater freedom and normality sooner? Yes
#covid19 #covid19ontario #onpoli #onhealth #onted #COVIDZero
cc @fordnation @celliottability @CPHO_Canada @CBCQueensPark @l_stone @bruce_arthur @ColinDMello @jkwan_md @FurnessColin @SteiniBrown @DFisman @ASPphysician
cc @fordnation @celliottability @CPHO_Canada @CBCQueensPark @l_stone @bruce_arthur @ColinDMello @jkwan_md @FurnessColin @SteiniBrown @DFisman @ASPphysician
UPDATE: progress on #14 https://globalnews.ca/news/7704507/canada-us-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine/
