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1/5
Thanks to FT for publishing my most recent piece. The point I try to make in this article is that for China to double GDP by 2035 requires that at least one of the following three be true:
-China must find an entirely new engine of economic... https://www.ft.com/content/8cc6f95e-89c2-4bf3-9db3-eafd481f1f37
Thanks to FT for publishing my most recent piece. The point I try to make in this article is that for China to double GDP by 2035 requires that at least one of the following three be true:
-China must find an entirely new engine of economic... https://www.ft.com/content/8cc6f95e-89c2-4bf3-9db3-eafd481f1f37
2/5
growth to absorb the huge amount of debt-financed spending that now goes into non-productive investments.
-China must redistribute at least 15-20 percentage points of income to the household sector to rebalance demand away from non-productive investment.
growth to absorb the huge amount of debt-financed spending that now goes into non-productive investments.
-China must redistribute at least 15-20 percentage points of income to the household sector to rebalance demand away from non-productive investment.
3/5
-There are no limits to a country's debt capacity, and its debt burden can rise indefinitely without ever putting downward pressure on growth.
China has been trying to accomplish the first of these conditions for well over a decade, but while there has been some success...
-There are no limits to a country's debt capacity, and its debt burden can rise indefinitely without ever putting downward pressure on growth.
China has been trying to accomplish the first of these conditions for well over a decade, but while there has been some success...
4/5
to a small extent, it hasn't succeeded to anywhere near the needed scale, and because the scale is so large, it is unlikely to do so. The second condition would entail a political transformation that would be disruptive in the short term, and so is probably also...
to a small extent, it hasn't succeeded to anywhere near the needed scale, and because the scale is so large, it is unlikely to do so. The second condition would entail a political transformation that would be disruptive in the short term, and so is probably also...
5/5
unlikely, although Beijing seems more determined than ever to follow this path. Finally, I think the third is simply wrong. But without at least one of these, doubling GDP by 2035 is very unlikely.
unlikely, although Beijing seems more determined than ever to follow this path. Finally, I think the third is simply wrong. But without at least one of these, doubling GDP by 2035 is very unlikely.
