Michael Pettis, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @michaelxpettis

Michael Pettis

michaelxpettis

1/9This is going to be a very technical tweet for debt geeks. According to last week’s PBoC release, China’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined during the first quarter of this year by

1/4If near-record iron ore prices reflect stronger-than-ever demand from China, the two most likely explanations are, first, that there has been as of yet no rebalancing of domestic demand towards

1/8Very interesting article by @DJMatthewDalton: "Western officials and executives say financial support from the Chinese government allows Chinese-owned manufacturers overseas to operate on razor-thin margins or at a loss, while...

1/8Those of us concerned about the cost to the US economy of unbalanced trade have to distinguish between imports driven by differences in manufacturing productivity and imports driven by lower

1/5Very interesting Caixin article. Beijing has stopped work on two HSR projects in Shandong and Shaanxi because of provincial debt concerns. In both cases they cancelled the projects after discovering

1/3I am always a little bemused by experts who discover that any specific case of trade intervention will have an adverse cost for consumers. Of course it will. The whole

1/8This WSJ editorial makes an interesting but misleading point : It quotes "a former U.S. President" as saying: “The tax on capital gains directly affects investment decisions, the mobility and

1/12Very good, sober @noahpinion piece on digital RMB (it seems hard for most to write soberly about digital currencies). He makes at least four important points:First, given how advanced China's

1/4I don't know how you can credibly model these things, especially given the difficulty of accounting for the impact of debt, but you get the same conclusion simply from the

I apologize in advance for the long tweet, but this is a story worth remembering and which I’ve written about often. From the late 1930s to the late 1960s (excluding

1/8Zhang Bin notes that China’s reliance on debt-fueled growth – especially local-government debt – is creating huge systemic risks for the economy and argues that Beijing should rely more on

1/6NOPE apparently means “net options pricing effect”, and the "theory" recognizes that delta hedging is highly self-reinforcing – i.e. rising prices force delta hedgers to buy, thus pushing prices up