For much of my career I assumed people *knew* claims like these were political theater and not to be taken seriously.

But now I think, more and more, that it’s important to call them out occasionally as a public service. https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1317924980659785728

First (and I’m sorry to be tedious): correlation is not causation. Ian claims here that intervention X causes effect Y. There are an enormous number of confounds to consider.

For example, the entire world just received a massive economic shock. There are any number of mechanisms that could make one country more sensitive than another, and that correlate with case deaths.

Just off the top of my head: the extent to which a central government is willing to intervene to preserve employment relationships. Levels of altruism and social trust. The population’s age structure. The extent to which the economy is the UK’s blend of high finance and service.

I don’t really understand the world that Ian lives in. It’s one where you speak primarily to people you don’t respect—and who, in turn, don’t respect you.

I suppose my message to people considering a career like Ian’s is that, in the end, the people who actually make decisions won’t respect you. It’s a fundamentally bad bargain.

It’s surprising, at first, to see how people like this are dismissed just off the bat by anyone you might respect. Don’t they have books, titles, positions? Yes—but it’s largely for show, a distraction.

I think even for the punters, Ian may have overplayed his hand. Foresight into the 2021 economy! Phrased counterfactually, so impossible to verify. https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1317927570139217922?s=20

Hard to express the gap between this and the average college professor. I (and my colleagues) wouldn’t present Ian’s analysis to a 19 year old who was just there for the credit hour.

We actually care about getting it right—we want to win the respect of our students by teaching them things, making good arguments, empowering them in different ways, including giving them the freedom to draw their own conclusions.

Every now and then, a think tank type goes for @nntaleb. It’s often like this: knowing, superior, and asserting a Higher Seriousness through innuendo.

What they forget is Taleb’s playing a different game. Among other things, he never forgets. https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1226521758813114373?s=20