Thread on my election prediction:

My prediction is based solely on history and historical trends.

The biggest issue in the campaign is Covid-19.
There has been 11 Incumbents to face a pandemic during re-election. The incumbent is 11-0 (1820-present).

many experts say bad economies end incumbents careers.
This is not true. The incumbent party is 12-11 when facing re-election during a bad economy.

There is a huge correlation to primary performance with this historical trend.

since the first primary in 1912, 7 incumbents have faced a bad economy during re-election. 5 of those incumbents had very poor primary performances and lost. 2 of them had strong primary performances and won re-election.

In fact, no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.

Trump is only 1 of 5 incumbents since 1912 to receive 90% or more of the primary vote.

We've never seen primary participation levels for an incumbent like we did in the 2020 GOP primary. Trump set a record for most votes received by an incumbent with 18.1M.

The previous record was held by Bill Clinton with 9.7M primary votes.

We have also had riots. Incumbents are 6-6 when facing re-election during civil unrest, but 4-0 when facing a pandemic and civil unrest.

Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections.

What about polls?
well, polls are predicting Trump's win. The ABC poll shows Trump with a 19 point enthusiasm advantage.

Every candidate since 1988 that led in enthusiasm, has won the election.

Pew gives Trump a 20 pt advantage in strength of support. The leader in this poll has won every election since 1964.

All polls show voters expect Trump to win. The expectation question is more accurate...

than the voter intention question that has Biden leading.

Since 2004, the candidate that led in google searches has won the election. Trump leads Biden in google searches by a ratio of 3 to 1.

On Polls
The larger the class divide in the electorate, the larger the polling error

There has been many elections where polls just failed to predict anything.
1948, 1952, 1976, 1980, 1996, 2000, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 all had major polling errors.
In 2012, the current trend of low response rates began. Since 2012, polls have gotten worse.

The 2018 polls were not better than 2016, they were worse. Polls are incapable of predicting anything. especially with cancel culture and pollsters insistence on going in the field during major news events. 2020 has been one long major news event....

so the likelihood of a large response bias is high this year.

Joe Biden also has a history against him.

No one who served 15 years in the Senate has ever become president. Joe Biden has served 36 years.

The 14 year rule - No one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency. Biden needed 36 years to become VP.

History is against Biden and in favor of Trump.

The only thing that shows Biden winning are polls. By every historical metric and trend, Donald Trump will win this election.