Pro tip: if Trump doesn't win Sumter Co. (The Villages) at least two-to-one, he's not winning FL - or a second term. In 2016, it went 68%-29% Trump.

84% of Sumter's '16 vote was cast early/by mail (vs. 69% statewide), so we should have a good sense pretty early.

If we see Sumter mail/early results at 7pm that come in something like 62%-37% for Trump w/ more than 75k ballots counted, I'd personally consider that to be game over for the president.

If, on the other hand, we see Sumter mail/early results come in at something like 66%-33% for Trump, we're likely talking about a very close race in FL - and it's going to be a much longer night.