So what do we know? We knew coming out of the conventions that Biden had a 7 or 8 point national lead... We knew that the difference between the polls 35 days out (i.e. before the first debate) and result has averaged just 4 pts since 1940... (1/?)

We knew that Trump really wanted to close the gap between Biden & himself before that first debate because debate bounces are often (tho not always) fleeting... We know that didn't really happen, as Biden continued to lead by 7 to 8 pts before the first debate (2/?)

We know Trump probably needed to "win" the first debate... We know now that he did not... To the extent that someone won the first debate, it was Biden in all the scientific polling... We know now that Biden's avg lead is up about 2 pts post-debate... (3/?)

Trump's covid diagnosis is an unknown, but we do know from limited data taken on Friday/Saturday that Biden's lead stayed steady or rose in polls like Ipsos and SurveyMonkey... (?/?)

So when you sum it all up, you have Biden up by like 8 nationally with less than a month to go & nothing has rocked that lead as of yet. That advantage has been historically steady... and he's over 50%. He is the very clear favorite with no sign of that changing.