For over a year Trump supporters have convinced themselves that Trump is going to win in a landslide and all the polls are wrong. Many of them still believe it. But as it becomes clear that he'll need a comeback much bigger than what he pulled in 2016, some are going to lose it. https://twitter.com/dave_brown24/status/1311702257876955137

In many ways it's the reverse of 2016, where supporters of HRC thought there was no way she could possibly lose. Even though the numbers all along showed big HRC leads snapping back to a tie, over and over, lots of us couldn't believe she'd actually lose. Then she did.

The 2020 election has been incredibly stable the whole time. Whether the national polls or the Electoral College-based models, Biden has led consistently.

Contrast that with 2016. The RCP chart for 2016 is even more stark. We were deluding ourselves believing Trump had no chance.

When you don't prepare for the possibility of losing, it's a lot harder to accept. Unless something really does dramatically change this election, Trump supporters are going to be facing this soon. I'm not necessarily saying they'll do anything terrible. Some might. Most won't.

But the frustration will start to boil over as it becomes obvious what a lump of bullshit Trump has been feeding his supporters for years now. They'll blame the media. Fine. They'll blame China for covid. OK. They'll blame Dem governors. Whatever. The culprit is Trump.

The same qualities that attract his most fervid followers make him repulsive to a majority of Americans. Trump feeds on that intense support. His stauch supporters imagine that everybody is either flying Trump flags with them or secretly backing Trump and lying to pollsters.

Don't get me wrong here. Trump really could come back and win. He has a 20% chance now. 2020 has been a crazy and terrible year and something crazy and awful could throw this race to Trump. Who knows? But unless something really shakes the race up, Trump is going to lose.

And if that starts to become inevitable, some of his supporters are going to figure it out. I think some of the debate reaction is the first step in that recognition process. Sure, Wallace did a poor job, and they're right to complain. But again, the main culprit was Trump.

Donald Trump is his own worst enemy. He has no discipline to sustain a coherent line of attack against Biden or advance a case for his own re-election. When he stumbles on a good point, he undermines it in the next breath.

I would venture to guess that it's almost as exhausting for his supporters as it is for the rest of us. I think we all know it's time to turn the page.