Yes. But there's something else to consider. Some parts of Appalachian PA used to be Dem - esp. coal mining and steel mill union towns. But much of Appalachian PA was NEVER Dem. Here is 1996: You can see ancestral Dems in SW and NE PA but outside State College, not in central PA. https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1309118407372083204

By 2004, the exodus of Dems from Appalachian SW PA was well under way. Kerry still won the state.

And finally 2012. SW PA outside PGH was now red. Only place Dems held on was Scranton-WB (where Dems fell from 2012 to 2016). So this was a long-term shift. These aren't "Upper Midwest" white voters. Nor, for that matter, are they Alabama. They are more like West Virginia.

All this said, the margins of victory matter. The counties on the edge of Appalachian and non-Appalachian PA factor heavily. Think Northampton (Easton/Bethlehem), Dauphin & Cumberland (Harrisburg area), and Lackawanna (Scranton), which has closer ties to NYC than many realize.

One story I'm curious about is if a sizable number of NYC residents who fled the pandemic and went to the Poconos moved there for good. "Electoral College Colonization" could be a thing!

For that matter, a lot of NE PA is changing. Many more non-whites are moving in to places like Hazleton (that's how Lou Barletta started his anti-immigrant campaign). Lehigh Valley is increasingly diverse. But for now, this is still the Maginot Line of PA politics.