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Alright, a *reveal thread:*
At a time when people want definitive models/answers about what& #39;s going to happen - and truth is it could range from a 400+ EV "blue GA/TX" landslide to a nightmare PA "naked ballot" catastrophe - I& #39;ve wrestled w/ where we can add the most value.
At a time when people want definitive models/answers about what& #39;s going to happen - and truth is it could range from a 400+ EV "blue GA/TX" landslide to a nightmare PA "naked ballot" catastrophe - I& #39;ve wrestled w/ where we can add the most value.
The result: a tool that allows YOU to "choose your own 2020 adventure" and visualize how changes in demographic turnout rates & vote preference interact with the Electoral College.
In other words, America could use a good swingometer.
In other words, America could use a good swingometer.
To that end, we& #39;ve created not one, but two! exciting features that allow you to "Swing the Vote:"
1) A handy @NBCNews "Swing the Vote" interactive designed for a wide audience
2) A detailed @CookPolitical interactive w/ more in-depth data. Warning: *election super-nerds only*
1) A handy @NBCNews "Swing the Vote" interactive designed for a wide audience
2) A detailed @CookPolitical interactive w/ more in-depth data. Warning: *election super-nerds only*
First, introducing @NBCNews& #39;s "Swing the Election!" It allows you to adjust turnout/vote choice shares by either race/education OR [toggle] age groups to estimate Electoral outcomes (the default is set to 2016& #39;s levels). https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/">https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/...
The featured race/education groups that you can adjust [thanks sliders!] are:
1) White, non-college
2) White, college graduate
3) Black/African-American
4) Hispanic/Latino
5) Asian/other
Featured age groups:
1) 18-29
2) 30-44
3) 45-64
4) 65+
1) White, non-college
2) White, college graduate
3) Black/African-American
4) Hispanic/Latino
5) Asian/other
Featured age groups:
1) 18-29
2) 30-44
3) 45-64
4) 65+
The key takeaway: if 2016& #39;s rates of turnout/support by education/race were applied to 2020& #39;s demographic realities, population change *alone* would be enough to hand FL/MI/PA/WI - and the presidency - to Joe Biden. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/demographic-shifts-2016-could-be-enough-defeat-trump-it-s-n1240724">https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/...
Now a disclaimer: groups aren& #39;t monolithic and swings are never perfectly uniform! For example, since & #39;16, Trump has likely improved more among Hispanic voters in FL than in AZ.
But, these tools are designed to give users a general idea of how states move together (or not).
But, these tools are designed to give users a general idea of how states move together (or not).
On the @NBCNews side, there are big thanks in order to a super-talented team who turned this feature into a reality, led by @thebrandedgirl, @seenigel, @oldman_muccari and @jiachuanwu.
