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Alright, a *reveal thread:*
At a time when people want definitive models/answers about what's going to happen - and truth is it could range from a 400+ EV "blue GA/TX" landslide to a nightmare PA "naked ballot" catastrophe - I've wrestled w/ where we can add the most value.
At a time when people want definitive models/answers about what's going to happen - and truth is it could range from a 400+ EV "blue GA/TX" landslide to a nightmare PA "naked ballot" catastrophe - I've wrestled w/ where we can add the most value.
The result: a tool that allows YOU to "choose your own 2020 adventure" and visualize how changes in demographic turnout rates & vote preference interact with the Electoral College.
In other words, America could use a good swingometer.
In other words, America could use a good swingometer.
To that end, we've created not one, but two! exciting features that allow you to "Swing the Vote:"
1) A handy @NBCNews "Swing the Vote" interactive designed for a wide audience
2) A detailed @CookPolitical interactive w/ more in-depth data. Warning: *election super-nerds only*
1) A handy @NBCNews "Swing the Vote" interactive designed for a wide audience
2) A detailed @CookPolitical interactive w/ more in-depth data. Warning: *election super-nerds only*
First, introducing @NBCNews's "Swing the Election!" It allows you to adjust turnout/vote choice shares by either race/education OR [toggle] age groups to estimate Electoral outcomes (the default is set to 2016's levels). https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/
The featured race/education groups that you can adjust [thanks sliders!] are:
1) White, non-college
2) White, college graduate
3) Black/African-American
4) Hispanic/Latino
5) Asian/other
Featured age groups:
1) 18-29
2) 30-44
3) 45-64
4) 65+
1) White, non-college
2) White, college graduate
3) Black/African-American
4) Hispanic/Latino
5) Asian/other
Featured age groups:
1) 18-29
2) 30-44
3) 45-64
4) 65+
The key takeaway: if 2016's rates of turnout/support by education/race were applied to 2020's demographic realities, population change *alone* would be enough to hand FL/MI/PA/WI - and the presidency - to Joe Biden. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/demographic-shifts-2016-could-be-enough-defeat-trump-it-s-n1240724
Now a disclaimer: groups aren't monolithic and swings are never perfectly uniform! For example, since '16, Trump has likely improved more among Hispanic voters in FL than in AZ.
But, these tools are designed to give users a general idea of how states move together (or not).
But, these tools are designed to give users a general idea of how states move together (or not).
On the @NBCNews side, there are big thanks in order to a super-talented team who turned this feature into a reality, led by @thebrandedgirl, @seenigel, @oldman_muccari and @jiachuanwu.
Some might wonder: why are the default Electoral College scenarios different by education/race (Biden 307) and age (Trump 306)?
Answer: if you apply '16-'20 population change by race/education, you get an electorate that's more diverse/educated. If by age, an older electorate.
Answer: if you apply '16-'20 population change by race/education, you get an electorate that's more diverse/educated. If by age, an older electorate.
