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I& #39;ve heard some analysts argue a SCOTUS fight will help Trump by shifting "what 2020 will be about" from his mismanagement of COVID to a more straightforward partisan cage match.
That could happen, but I& #39;ve always seen some big risks for Trump in a pre-election SCOTUS fight...
That could happen, but I& #39;ve always seen some big risks for Trump in a pre-election SCOTUS fight...
Namely, the potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue to tear Trump& #39;s coalition apart.
Much of his 2016 support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked his rhetoric on immigration/trade, but are *pro-choice* - especially secular, blue-collar women.
Much of his 2016 support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked his rhetoric on immigration/trade, but are *pro-choice* - especially secular, blue-collar women.
This morning, I dove into 2016 CCES data (50,000+ person national survey).
Only 15% of Clinton& #39;s voters at least leaned pro-life and 11% held mixed views (74% at least leaned pro-choice).
But 22% of Trump& #39;s voters at least leaned pro-choice and another 13% held mixed views.
Only 15% of Clinton& #39;s voters at least leaned pro-life and 11% held mixed views (74% at least leaned pro-choice).
But 22% of Trump& #39;s voters at least leaned pro-choice and another 13% held mixed views.
Although Trump downplayed abortion in 2016, voters w/ mostly pro-choice attitudes made up more than a fifth of his support in plenty of battleground states:
25% in Iowa
24% in Florida
24% in Pennsylvania
24% in Michigan
21% in Arizona
20% in Wisconsin
20% in Ohio
25% in Iowa
24% in Florida
24% in Pennsylvania
24% in Michigan
21% in Arizona
20% in Wisconsin
20% in Ohio
For decades, many of these blue-collar, pro-choice Trump voters had voted for Democrats because they saw Republicans as the party of "Bible thumpers" who moralized against abortion & gay marriage.
Then Trump came along, and they didn& #39;t mind him as much.
Then Trump came along, and they didn& #39;t mind him as much.
Now, there may actually be an opportunity for Dems to win back many of these voters by tying Trump to the "DC swamp:" Mitch McConnell and Rs who want to "end Roe v. Wade, cut more taxes for billionaires" etc.
In fact, Biden is *already* winning many of these blue-collar voters.
In fact, Biden is *already* winning many of these blue-collar voters.
The under-utilized Dem message Rs should be most scared of probably goes something like this:
"In 2016, Trump promised to drain the swamp. Instead, he became the swamp: he let Mitch McConnell and stock-dumping, ultra-far right GOP senators write his entire domestic agenda."
"In 2016, Trump promised to drain the swamp. Instead, he became the swamp: he let Mitch McConnell and stock-dumping, ultra-far right GOP senators write his entire domestic agenda."
After all, the Obama-Trump voters Biden needs to win back may have been yearning for a political "outsider" in & #39;16 but are still:
1) extremely against tax cuts for wealthy Americans
2) decidedly against repealing the ACA
3) substantially pro-choice
1) extremely against tax cuts for wealthy Americans
2) decidedly against repealing the ACA
3) substantially pro-choice
Btw, I& #39;m not sure groups like @ProjectLincoln, whose ads mostly feature anti-Trump messaging that amounts to porn for base Dems & NeverTrump Rs, have demonstrated they understand this type of swing voter yet.
Bottom line: the millions of Obama-Trump voters who will decide the 2020 election are *not* persuaded by attacks on Trump as divisive, bad person.
But they *do* despise McConnell and “DC swamp/establishment” Rs.
But they *do* despise McConnell and “DC swamp/establishment” Rs.
