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Most ag exports think the U.S. is poised for a strong harvest (crop generally looks good, 'bean supplies in Brazil are tight).
But still hard not to notice that so far this year the phase one deal had no impact on 'bean and cereal exports to China
But still hard not to notice that so far this year the phase one deal had no impact on 'bean and cereal exports to China
No matter how you look at it, the lagged data is still weak ...
(we are in the seasonal lull in exports, but the start of the year was poor)
(we are in the seasonal lull in exports, but the start of the year was poor)
Volumes going to China should pick up later in the year, but over the last 12ms (during the phase one negotiations and first 6ms of the deal) they remained below historic levels
The rise in meat exports (which actually largely predates the formal phase one deal, as it stems in large part from China's pork shortage ... tho the "deal" has increased the chicken parts trade) looks to have leveled off
But in the backward looking data, meat exports have been a clear strength
