Read on Twitter
Thread: the reason I was so eager for new @QuinnipiacPoll national data wasn& #39;t that I was expecting a certain result; it was that it allows for a more complete comparison of live-interview national polling from June/July to August.
And, there are some clear takeaways...
And, there are some clear takeaways...
Back of envelope, I& #39;ve averaged the toplines and race, education, gender and age crosstabs of seven polls that were in the field in June/July *and* again in August: Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Fox, NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN and Marist...
[we pause this programming to add in brand new Suffolk and CNN data, we will be right back after these messages]
Ok, we& #39;re back. Back of envelope, I& #39;ve averaged the toplines and race, education, gender and age crosstabs of *eight* live-interview polls that were in the field in June/July and again in August: ABC/WaPo, CNN, Fox, Marist, Monmouth, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac and Suffolk...
Fair warning: I& #39;m looking at the change in responses between June/July and *all* of August, not necessarily between pre- and post-convention (although I& #39;m including CNN, Quinnipiac and Suffolk post-convention data)...
Biden& #39;s average lead in these polls has narrowed a bit from 52-40 in June/July to 51-42 today. Among whites, a modest homecoming of non-college grads to Trump.
He led 57-36 among them on average in August, vs. 56-38 in June/July - a trend that& #39;s not at all surprising.
He led 57-36 among them on average in August, vs. 56-38 in June/July - a trend that& #39;s not at all surprising.
Meanwhile, Biden& #39;s lead among college+ whites looks quite steady. He led 58-38 in June/July, and 57-38 in August - basically no change there.
Per @Nate_Cohn , Clinton led college+ whites 50-38 in final 2016 polls (Trump led 58-30 among non-college whites).
Per @Nate_Cohn , Clinton led college+ whites 50-38 in final 2016 polls (Trump led 58-30 among non-college whites).
However, August polls show Trump continuing to overperform vs. & #39;16 with non-whites, despite his white erosion.
Among Blacks, Biden leads 83-9 (vs. 82-8 in June/July and Clinton 83-5 in & #39;16).
Among Hispanics, Biden leads 56-31 (vs. 54-29 in June/July and Clinton 61-23 in & #39;16).
Among Blacks, Biden leads 83-9 (vs. 82-8 in June/July and Clinton 83-5 in & #39;16).
Among Hispanics, Biden leads 56-31 (vs. 54-29 in June/July and Clinton 61-23 in & #39;16).
Overall, Biden& #39;s erosion w/ non-college whites is to be expected - they& #39;re likely to live in Trump-friendlier news/info environments and many are just starting to tune into the race. I don& #39;t think it was ever realistic for Biden to sustain 40%+ in that demo except in a blowout.
