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Thread: the reason I was so eager for new @QuinnipiacPoll national data wasn't that I was expecting a certain result; it was that it allows for a more complete comparison of live-interview national polling from June/July to August.
And, there are some clear takeaways...
And, there are some clear takeaways...
Back of envelope, I've averaged the toplines and race, education, gender and age crosstabs of seven polls that were in the field in June/July *and* again in August: Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Fox, NBC/WSJ, ABC/WaPo, CNN and Marist...
[we pause this programming to add in brand new Suffolk and CNN data, we will be right back after these messages]
Ok, we're back. Back of envelope, I've averaged the toplines and race, education, gender and age crosstabs of *eight* live-interview polls that were in the field in June/July and again in August: ABC/WaPo, CNN, Fox, Marist, Monmouth, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac and Suffolk...
Fair warning: I'm looking at the change in responses between June/July and *all* of August, not necessarily between pre- and post-convention (although I'm including CNN, Quinnipiac and Suffolk post-convention data)...
Biden's average lead in these polls has narrowed a bit from 52-40 in June/July to 51-42 today. Among whites, a modest homecoming of non-college grads to Trump.
He led 57-36 among them on average in August, vs. 56-38 in June/July - a trend that's not at all surprising.
He led 57-36 among them on average in August, vs. 56-38 in June/July - a trend that's not at all surprising.
Meanwhile, Biden's lead among college+ whites looks quite steady. He led 58-38 in June/July, and 57-38 in August - basically no change there.
Per @Nate_Cohn , Clinton led college+ whites 50-38 in final 2016 polls (Trump led 58-30 among non-college whites).
Per @Nate_Cohn , Clinton led college+ whites 50-38 in final 2016 polls (Trump led 58-30 among non-college whites).
However, August polls show Trump continuing to overperform vs. '16 with non-whites, despite his white erosion.
Among Blacks, Biden leads 83-9 (vs. 82-8 in June/July and Clinton 83-5 in '16).
Among Hispanics, Biden leads 56-31 (vs. 54-29 in June/July and Clinton 61-23 in '16).
Among Blacks, Biden leads 83-9 (vs. 82-8 in June/July and Clinton 83-5 in '16).
Among Hispanics, Biden leads 56-31 (vs. 54-29 in June/July and Clinton 61-23 in '16).
Overall, Biden's erosion w/ non-college whites is to be expected - they're likely to live in Trump-friendlier news/info environments and many are just starting to tune into the race. I don't think it was ever realistic for Biden to sustain 40%+ in that demo except in a blowout.
But, he shouldn't be comfortable with too much more erosion: as we've said over and over, non-college whites are overrepresented in the battleground (49% vs. 44% nationally in '16) and their continued movement to Trump would widen gap between Electoral College/popular vote.
Perhaps the best news for Biden is he's maintaining his strength among seniors (65+), who made up 24% of '16 voters in AZ/FL/MI/NC/PA/WI vs. just 21% elsewhere.
Biden is up 50-45 among seniors in the August polls, vs. 50-44 in June/July. Trump badly needs to change this.
Biden is up 50-45 among seniors in the August polls, vs. 50-44 in June/July. Trump badly needs to change this.
