Selzer poll is out: Biden leads by 8, 49-41. This is an A+ pollster. It had Biden up only 4 in March.

https://www.grinnell.edu/sites/default/files/docs/2020-09/Selzer%20Co%20GCNP%202219%20Methodology.pdf

This means it is almost impossible for Trump to surge into a PV tie or lead in the poll averages in the aftermath of the RNC. +8 is well above any EV/PV split threshold. The race is not over. Things can still change. But Trump will need to do what Truman did in 1948 to win.

And here are the crosstabs. The party ID split is almost even between D & R; Biden leads Indies by 10. Biden also gets 45% of white votes, which positions him well in the Upper Midwest.

Education weighting looks right too. If you're looking to "unskew" this poll, you could make the sample "whiter." But with Biden at 45% of white vote, it won't help Trump very much. Ann Selzer knows what she's doing. This race is steady and Biden is leading going into Labor Day.