Read on Twitter
1/7
Good piece by Robin Harding, but I am even less impressed by Abenomics than he is. I do however think it has important lessons for China. Like China today – although not nearly to the same extent – Japanese demand was severely unbalanced in... https://www.ft.com/content/9f4b1656-95a2-41e0-9c86-70f5b063796d
Good piece by Robin Harding, but I am even less impressed by Abenomics than he is. I do however think it has important lessons for China. Like China today – although not nearly to the same extent – Japanese demand was severely unbalanced in... https://www.ft.com/content/9f4b1656-95a2-41e0-9c86-70f5b063796d
2/7
the 1980s and early 1990s, and with consumption so low, the country relied too heavily on investment and the trade surplus to deliver growth.
Over the next two decades Japan slowly raised the household share of GDP, and with it the consumption share, mainly (I think) by...
the 1980s and early 1990s, and with consumption so low, the country relied too heavily on investment and the trade surplus to deliver growth.
Over the next two decades Japan slowly raised the household share of GDP, and with it the consumption share, mainly (I think) by...
3/7
shifting private debt to the government balance sheet. The result is that from the early 1990s until 2013, the private consumption share of GDP rose 6-7 percentage points to nearly 59% of GDP: certainly an improvement as Japan went through its own difficult version of...
shifting private debt to the government balance sheet. The result is that from the early 1990s until 2013, the private consumption share of GDP rose 6-7 percentage points to nearly 59% of GDP: certainly an improvement as Japan went through its own difficult version of...
4/7
"dual circulation", but Tokyo never really addressed the debt.
Under Abe, however, not only did the adjustment stop, but it substantially reversed. The combination of higher consumption taxes, a weaker yen and lower interest rates (driven perhaps by the high debt)..
"dual circulation", but Tokyo never really addressed the debt.
Under Abe, however, not only did the adjustment stop, but it substantially reversed. The combination of higher consumption taxes, a weaker yen and lower interest rates (driven perhaps by the high debt)..
5/7
may have contributed to driving down the household share of GDP and, with it, the consumption share dropped by 4-5 percentage points, reversing most of the gains previously obtained.
I think this may indicate some of the difficulty of China's "dual circulation"...
may have contributed to driving down the household share of GDP and, with it, the consumption share dropped by 4-5 percentage points, reversing most of the gains previously obtained.
I think this may indicate some of the difficulty of China's "dual circulation"...
6/7
strategy. As Japan rebalanced, it lost its export competitiveness and its trade surplus withered away. But because this was seen as a problem, and not as the necessary consequence of rebalancing, policies aimed at reversing Japan's dwindling export competitiveness also...
strategy. As Japan rebalanced, it lost its export competitiveness and its trade surplus withered away. But because this was seen as a problem, and not as the necessary consequence of rebalancing, policies aimed at reversing Japan's dwindling export competitiveness also...
7/7
reversed Japan's transition to a more domestically-determined economy. You can't rebalance while maintaining the export competitiveness that leads to large trade surpluses.
reversed Japan's transition to a more domestically-determined economy. You can't rebalance while maintaining the export competitiveness that leads to large trade surpluses.
