1/- Someone from the Brookings Institute says that because of Covid-19, he now expects the Chinese economy to overtake that of the US by 2028 rather than 2030. Leaving aside that Chinese and US GDPs are not comparable as proxies for the real underlying...

http://en.people.cn/n3/2020/0826/c90000-9738449.html#.X0dCsEWi66Q.twitter

2/- economy, if we assume that US GDP shrinks by 8% this year, while China's grows by 2.5%, average US GDP growth of 1-2% for the next 8 years would require that average Chinese GDP growth exceed 5-6% (assuming a stable CNY).

Unless he is assuming... https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/78138

3/- wealth transfers to households of at least 2% of GDP a year, which is politically very unlikely, for China to grow at these rates would require that Chinese debt rise from 254% of GDP at the end of 2019 (the official number used by Beijing) to at least 340-60% of GDP by...

4/- the end of 2028. For those who think that China's debt-to-GDP ratio was actually closer to 310% at the end of 2019, it would have to rise to at least 420-450% of GDP.

These are unprecedented debt levels, and, needless to say, I strongly disagree with his prediction.