The DNC, to my mind, had one clear and simple task: do everything you can to increase Biden's favorability rating, and make more people feel *good* about Biden.
The RNC's task is far less clear. They have a lot of work to do, but it's also not always clear what they can do

I'm reminded of the scene in Apollo 13, when the flight director asks after the explosion: "let's look at this from the standpoint of status. what do we got on the spacecraft that's good?" At least on the numbers, they don't have many good answers to that question.

The last two reelection campaigns had a clear flight plan:
--define the opposition early to setup a positive contrast on a key issue (flip flop : natsec :: bain : econ)
--emphasize wedge issues to fire up your base and appeal to key vts
--boost your ratings by a couple of points

It works when you have...
--A pretty good material on your opposition
--A clear vision of your preferred most important issue, and a plausible pitch on it
--You're already close (you've had a winning coalition and you just need to reinvigorate it w 47% ratings)

Heading into this convention, I don't think the Trump campaign had laid the groundwork for this style of reelection campaign. They haven't resolved on a clear attack on Biden. They haven't chosen a clear contrast on the most important issue. Their approval isn't at 47.

So they have lots they need to do! But part of the reason they haven't done these things may be because they can't or don't know how.
So what am I watching for? A clear strategic vision for how they want to win this election.

By this measure, night one was interesting?
If I had to describe it, I'd say night one was: do what you can to shore up the president's standing, including on COVID and race relations (Haley/Scott); use crime/fear of the left to rev up the base and peel off some suburban swing

That first element--shoring up the president on race and COVID--is not something we've seen much of before. It'll be interesting to see if they commit to this on later nights/in ads.
The second part we've seen a lot of before, but they continue to struggle with the Biden aspect

For instance, shoring up Trump on race may involve attacking Biden on the crime bill; 'fear of the left' may involve depicting Biden as a stealth radical socialist. There's tension there.
Either way, they spent less time on Biden than I would have guessed.

After all, attitudes about Trump are pretty fixed--and it's a key part of how he won last time.
But I can't summarize the attack this morning. It's not "flip flop." It's not "Bain." It's not "lock her up"

Over all, I thought the crime/fear of left argument was the most central part of the night. But that's more of a wedge issue. It'd be like an RNC '04 where they talked way more about gay marriage than terrorism, and occasionally mentioned that Kerry was *actually* an atheist

In that hypothetical Trump '04 RNC, they bring on a couple of pro-choice Republicans like a KBH in prime time or something to assure the crowd that they're not religious radicals, they just fear that the left is going too far and destroying our institutions.

Anyway who knows whether that would have worked for Bush at the time. As it is today, their reliance on this kind of strategy is borne of a certain weakness. They don't think they have a clear vision for a more traditional strategy.