THREAD: Election analysis based on Historical trends, not polls. Let's start with Incumbent strength. In 1976, Ford's (R) Approval among republicans was 68% (Gallup). In 1980, Carter's (D) Approval among democrats was 50%. In 1992, Bush 41 Approval among republicans was 64%.

In 2020, Donald Trump approval among republicans is 91% (all numbers are from Gallup). Ford, Carter, and Bush 41's party had abandoned them and they lost. Trump's party support stands historically strong. Now, Primary performance.

Since 1912, 5 incumbents have lost re-election. Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 all performed terribly in the primary and all of them lost. Since 1912, 7 incumbents have faced re-election during a bad economy. Coolidge, Truman, and the 5 previously mentioned.

Coolidge and truman had very strong primary performances and won re-election despite having a bad economy. Taft, Hoover, Ford, Carter, and Bush 41 all had bad economies and bad primary performances and they lost re-election. In a bad economy, a strong primary performance is key.

Trump's primary performance. Trump has received 18M votes in the primary, which is a record for an incumbent (previous record: 9.7M by Bill Clinton). Trump has the 4th highest percentage of party support in the primary for any incumbent with 94.06%.

A list of the best primary performances by incumbents
1. Reagan 1984 - 98.8%
2. Wilson 1916 - 98.8%
3. Bush 43 2004 - 98.06%
4. Trump 2020 - 94.06%
5. FDR 1936 - 92.9%
6. Clinton 1996 - 89%
7. Obama 2012 - 88.9%

Trump did better than FDR, Clinton, Obama, and Nixon.

Pandemics and Re-election. In 1820, James Monroe won re-election & 6th straight term for his party during the Yellow Fever epidemic.
In 1832, Andrew Jackson won re-election as the 2nd Cholera pandemic reached the US shore and during the Malaria pandemic that killed 150k people.

In 1836, Jackson's VP Martin Van Buren won a 3rd term for his party during the 2nd Cholera Pandemic that killed over 100k people and an economic recession. In 1900, William McKinley won re-election during a recession and a bubonic plague epidemic.

In 1924, Calvin Coolidge won re-election during a recession and both a small pox and pneumonic plague epidemic.
I've said it over and over, Covid means nothing. History proves this. Biden should make the election a referendum on the recession, not pandemic.

John kerry in 2004 made the election a referendum on Bush's handling of Iraq. Kerry lost because his solutions weren't different from Bush's. This is the problem Biden has with the Covid referendum.
Biden has historical hurdles of his own.

Biden served 36 years in the Senate. No one who has served 15 years or more in the senate has ever been elected president. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/three-reasons-joe-biden-will-never-be-president

Also, the 14 year rule. No one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency.
History is 100% on Trump's side. Trump will win re-election.