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The risk of a huge shift towards absentee voting isn’t fraud that hurts the GOP.
It’s administrative dysfunction & voter inexperience that leads to millions of (disproportionately Dem) ballots not counting. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/a-month-later-this-new-york-city-primary-is-still-a-train-wreck-and-a-warning-to-us-all/2020/07/25/1c19f9c4-cb68-11ea-b0e3-d55bda07d66a_story.html
It’s administrative dysfunction & voter inexperience that leads to millions of (disproportionately Dem) ballots not counting. https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/a-month-later-this-new-york-city-primary-is-still-a-train-wreck-and-a-warning-to-us-all/2020/07/25/1c19f9c4-cb68-11ea-b0e3-d55bda07d66a_story.html
This is why I'm not convinced the "Trump's attacks on mail voting will backfire/depress GOP turnout" narrative is accurate.
Trump is currently creating a massive partisan divide between in-person (R) and absentee (D) votes. And absentees are rejected at much higher rates.
Trump is currently creating a massive partisan divide between in-person (R) and absentee (D) votes. And absentees are rejected at much higher rates.
Take #NY27's June special election, for example. The Republican, Chris Jacobs (R), led 70%-28% in the Election Day count.
Once absentees were counted, that lead shrunk to 51%-46% (!). This kind of partisan divide is virtually without precedent.
Once absentees were counted, that lead shrunk to 51%-46% (!). This kind of partisan divide is virtually without precedent.
The absentee rejection rates from pandemic primaries (4-8% in KY, 20% in NYC) are many times higher than in past elections and should be setting off alarm bells for Dems.
No doubt postmarks/signatures will be intensely litigated. But Trump thrives on chaos/murkiness.
No doubt postmarks/signatures will be intensely litigated. But Trump thrives on chaos/murkiness.
Biden's current lead would almost certainly withstand much higher-than-usual rejection rates of absentee ballots.
But, even setting aside the prospect of the Electoral College race tightening, think about how many Sen/House races are likely to come down to <2% margins.
But, even setting aside the prospect of the Electoral College race tightening, think about how many Sen/House races are likely to come down to <2% margins.
To me, it’s surprising that that there’s not more of an emphasis on early *in-person* voting for those at lower disease risk as a means of relieving the burden on many states’ 1) strained Election Day infrastructure and 2) strained absentee ballot regimes.
