1) This is a pretty good article, but I disagree with this: “There is, however, a radical difference between this Cold War and the one that developed during the second half of the 20th century. The former USSR was never the economic power that is China." https://elpais.com/internacional/2020-07-25/ee-uu-vs-china-escenarios-de-la-nueva-guerra-fria.html
2) That’s not true, and the fact that so many believe this just shows how completely we tend to forget our previous mistakes. By the late 1960s the USSR was growing so fast and had become so big (about 15% of global GDP at its peak, on paper, compared to China’s 16% today,..
3) also mainly on paper – see my Carnegie piece below) that few doubted that it would overtake the US economically within two decades. What is more, its relative prowess in technology seemed far superior than that of China today – among other things it... https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82362
4) had launched its first satellite and had put its first man in space before the US was able to do either – while its military might relative to the US was much greater than that of China today and its military alliances far stronger.

It may be inevitable that today’s...
5) Cold War seem more complicated and frightening than yesterday’s, but that may be mainly because we know how yesterday’s ended. In retrospect the USSR was never the existential threat to the US that we thought it was, and I don’t think China is today.
You can follow @michaelxpettis.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: