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With the conclusion of the primaries in Texas last night, I want to flag a tier of districts that haven't gotten a ton of attention from the race raters (perhaps for good reason, I haven't been following the candidates) but seem ripe in this environment: TX3, 6, 10, 25
All of these races were single digits in the House last time, despite no serious contest.
All were Cruz+5 or less (TX10 was a Beto win).
TX3, last I looked, has the highest college graduate percentage of any GOP held district remaining in the land
All were Cruz+5 or less (TX10 was a Beto win).
TX3, last I looked, has the highest college graduate percentage of any GOP held district remaining in the land
These districts don't strike me as very different from an MO02 and IN05, if you factor in the uncertain D upside of rapid demographic change.
TX is changing but these districts are transforming. What's going to happen with high turnout and registration in a competitive race?
TX is changing but these districts are transforming. What's going to happen with high turnout and registration in a competitive race?
As a result, I have no real doubts about whether Biden *could* win a district like TX03, which was Trump+14 last time. That's not to say he will. But I don't see how that's even controversial at this point, and if so it would pbly mean no better than a low single digit House race
Missed these changes! I'd guess @Redistrict won't be too far behind https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1283362035544338432?s=20
