It's time for a quick thread on the @WHO @Worldometers and @JohnsHopkins dataset that underpins the whole #covid19 #pandemic

Where does it come from and is it even real? https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1283127293460848645

I presume that the average person thinks that "real time data" is just there, ready to be seen across the whole world.

Hospitals and laboratories don't work like that.

So how does it work?

So the individual goes along and gets a test. That means a swab is put in the nose, put into a medium then eventually transported to the lab.

Someone in the lab puts it into a machine and in most cases a PCR test is done.

The PCR test amplifies a certain fragment of DNA (supposedly selected to differentiate #SARSCOV2 from all other viruses - although it's not that easy given that there is 80% crossover with MERS, for instance)

Those amplified fragments are detected on a machine...

And then the result is entered into a database in the lab. For most advanced countries that's automatic from a barcode but for less advanced countries it would all be entered manually.

So each lab has its own data

What is NOT happening is that each lab is not uploading that data to @JohnsHopkins

There is no mechanism to do that, it would require each lab to implement a new add on to their system to enable their data to point to a foreign country.

As with the #surgisphere data this doesn't happen without a LOT of red tape. It would have to have been prepared a long time in advance, under specific regulations. And nobody knew in advance that @JohnsHopkins would be collating the data.

So where does it go?

Well, if you're lucky it's collated at country (state, government) level. But even this isn't easy - it took years to get screening databases linked up (and many states and territories can't even do that)

So, one answer came from the @WHO...

Which was to attempt to implement the JEE (Joint Eternal Evaluation) mission, to help countries combine data reporting through the @WHO.

It's a long term project and still under development because it requires countries to have the resources...

...to provide networked laboratories to provide real time anonymised data. All that costs money that some countries and health systems don't have to spare for an external body. https://www.who.int/ihr/procedures/mission-reports/en/

So not all countries can provide the data.

Here is as up-to-date as I can get. Most countries in South America for instance don't provide data.

https://extranet.who.int/sph/jee-dashboard#collapse-203

In fact the most advanced countries (Canada and the US) claim, in their report documents, that they do not have unified link reporting portals.

https://extranet.who.int/sph/sites/default/files/jeeta/WHO-WHE-CPI-2017.13-eng.pdf
https://extranet.who.int/sph/sites/default/files/jeeta/WHO-WHE-CPI-2019.62-eng.pdf

So where is @JohnsHopkins getting its data from? Well, @Worldometers is supposed to be one source but they don't specify a single source for their data. They say they have a semi-manual process from 5000 sources.

Now, that is a VERY time consuming process yet the data we were told that we were getting was real-time.

Initially it was from "news reports" but when the figures get into 100,000s a day this is of course impossible.

So, who is behind the Johns Hopkins portal?

These people, apparently. Yes, that's right https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/11/health/johns-hopkins-covid-19-map-team-wellness-trnd/index.html

So we have Dr Lauren Gardner and her "new team" formed in December 2019 with PhD student Ensheng Dong from China...

What superb timing!

Lauren's specialty?

Modelling. No, not the fashion type.

The "let's see what computer data we can generate to solve a problem" type

Here for the fact checkers.... https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=lauren+gardner+%5Bauth%5D&filter=years.2010-2019&sort=date

In fairness to Lauren the group published a paper in our favourite #corrupt @thelancet explaining exactly how they collate the data.

Mostly manually, with help from China.

For millions of cases. With a team of 6-8. Hmmmm https://twitter.com/TexasDownUnder/status/1230315569997438976?s=20

Which might explain why the Chinese data is so suspect (actually, fake)

But I'm sure we can believe the rest of the world's data can't we?

(Remember China's population is 1.4bn and was the epicentre of the outbreak, but feel free to believe they only had 85,226 cases).

Oh, and don't forget. #China never underwent any significant #lockdown

OK, #wuhan was locked down (other than for those wishing to travel outside China) but there was travel into China from Hubei in Jan.

So, why no outbreaks? No second wave? And no lockdown?

Well, I'll leave you with those questions. I'm sure somebody knows the answer. Maybe even Lauren.

/end

#covid19 #hydroxychloroquine #fakenews #coronavirus @PressSec @POTUS @JamesTodaroMD