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Concerned about significant mesoscale flash flooding & wind damage on Friday w/ Invest #98L. I'm primarily concerned about 2 areas, depending on 98L's tropical evolution:
1. Near/east of I-95 through Mid Atlantic
2. Long Island/coastal SNE
1. Near/east of I-95 through Mid Atlantic
2. Long Island/coastal SNE
1. High PWATs are expected near the 99th percentile along the Mid Atlantic coast into southern New England. Depending on the track & intensity of 98L, organized rainbands on its west side associated w/ mid-level frontogenesis may favor an axis of >2-4" of rain.
2. Strong LLJ will transport an anomalously moist airmass to NJ/SNE. Strong synoptic IVT convergence & coastal fgen via frictional convergence may support heavy rain bands. Low predictability & high impact scenario if rainbands train -> potential for >3-4" rain locally.
With a >=40kt LLJ near the New England coast, strong wind gusts could mix down to the surface with convective cells east of 98L's center on Friday. Wouldn't completely rule out an isolated tornado or two with a curved low-level hodograph.
Caution on this last tweet - I used the 3km NAM for the environmental parameters on the outer rainbands, but would urge caution with using the 3km NAM for this. It has a known bias to significantly exaggerate TC development and intensification, and is a strong & west outlier.
