States that failed to flatten their curve are seeing effects of earlier & higher peak. Somehow, though, they are being commended for this.

While states with flatter curves (and a lot less area under their curves to date) are being criticized.

Makes no sense. https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1273564935700787201

Unless we have reason to believe there are dramatically different seed dates for these states (and don’t think we do), what we are seeing is consistent with the states that flattened their curve now overtaking the states that failed to do so.

Not bc the former have been exemplary while the latter have been naughty—but bc of where the different states are along their respective curves.

Doesn’t the yellow curve overtake the blue one at some point? Not bc it’s the bad curve but actually bc it’s the good one?

I didn’t realize that the way the flattening thing worked was that the blue curve got to lecture the yellow curve when the yellow curve catches up.

I thought the yellow curve gets to lecture the blue curve.

I realize we don’t know precise pool of remaining susceptible in the different states. So we can’t know what’s going on for sure.

Also realize that what we are worried about could also be that the states with flat curves to date are about to go the way of the states like NY.

All of which is fair to worry about. And we need to work to figure out how to keep the curves as merciful as we can.

But what why are we constantly making favorable comps to states like NY?

Doesn’t seem rational.