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1/This paper is so good. Finally someone dispenses with the faux uncertainty about immunity! It is not "conservative" to ascribe equal priors to unequal beliefs. Ignoring background knowledge is not

Dr Jha’s position seems smart...until you think about it. For one, it proves too much. If the inevitability of mixing discredits shielding based on risk, it discredit *every* strategy, including

"Celebrities posting videos and selfies of working from home in opulent mansions is positively obscene and revolting." The cloaking of privilege in the guise of virtue has a high R0.

Epidemiologists can speak expertly to risks: “if you do X, then Y is likely to occur.”But when they speak instead to whether we *should* do X, how Y should be

PCR testing & the CDC controversy. Some thoughts. Per fascinating paper (see below), we are likely (1) infectious no more than 9d; (2) but can carry VL/test PCR + up

Two ideas for protecting mental wellness I have been thinking about lately:1. Don’t believe everything you think. 2. Remember to think everything you believe. 1. Don’t believe everything you think.

No one has ever denied the possibility of pediatric infection or transmission. You are engaging with a straw man. The real question has always been a quantitative one: do children

1/ Schools. The most common response I hear: “I want to open them too . . . but not until we have gotten spread under control.” Here is why this

1/ The most important evidence regarding pediatric transmission comes from Iceland, and their study published in NEJM. Be suspicious of any expert ignoring this paper and discussing anecdotes instead. https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NE

States that failed to flatten their curve are seeing effects of earlier & higher peak. Somehow, though, they are being commended for this. While states with flatter curves (and a

1/ What would falsify the hypothesis that comprehensive lockdowns are more potent by orders of magnitude than moderate mitigation measures? 2/ You would think that the following would be enough:

Great essay by @mlipsitch. But I must disagree with one thing, a big thing. Contrary to the essay’s implication, it is NOT “good sense” that any action— however excessive—is justified