So, are we nearing peak in Maharashtra? Modelling finds (unhelpfully) maybe, maybe not! Maharashtra's infections curve is disappointingly "straight". It could be flattening a bit. Four scenarios assuming a 0.5% fatality rate - with pictures - to follow...
#covid19maharashtra scenarios:
1. (Optimistic) Already peaked at about 0.76M infectious cases.
2. Peak end May at about 0.92M infectious cases.
3. Peak early-mid June at about 1.4M infectious cases.
4. (Pessimistic) Still no peak in mid-June. Almost 4M infectious cases by then.
Technical details of the simulations of Maharashtra's COVID19 epidemic in this thread.
You can follow @muradbanaji.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: