Thread by @muradbanaji, We know that COVID-19 is bad in Maharashtra. But how bad? How [...]

Murad Banaji

muradbanaji

We know that COVID-19 is bad in Maharashtra. But how bad? How prevalent is COVID-19 in Mumbai? Has it peaked? Is it going to be over any time soon? I ran some simulations and found the data is consistent with several futures. 1/ #covid19maharashtra https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/coronavirus/news/maharashtras-covid-19-cases-rise-to-44582-mumbais-count-crosses-27000-mark/articleshow/75899784.cms

Maharashtra's Covid-19 cases rise to 44,582, Mumbai's count crosses 27,000-mark

Maharashtra reported the highest spike of 2,940 COVID-19 new cases on Friday. Sixty-three people succumbed to the virus today in the state. With this, the state

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/coronavirus/news/maharashtras-covid-19-cases-rise-to-44582-mumbais-count-crosses-27000-mark/articleshow/75899784.cms

First some estimates. Modelling suggests there have been ~4000 deaths in Maharashtra and ~2.2 million infections. If two thirds are in Mumbai, then around 8% of Mumbai's 18M population have had COVID-19. (London: 17% & NY: >21%)
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52749186 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

1 in 5 New Yorkers May Have Had Covid-19, Antibody Tests Suggest

Accurate antibody testing is a critical tool to determine if the pandemic has slowed enough to begin restarting the economy.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52749186

Maharashtra's estimated cases are based on an assumed infection fatality rate of 0.5%. Official deaths are 1576, but I corrected for systematic undercounting of COVID-19 deaths which began in mid-April. I discussed this in an article earlier. https://science.thewire.in/health/covid-19-mumbai-comorbid-fatality-criteria-missing-deaths-modelling/

The Tricky Issue With Knowing How Many Are Dying From COVID-19 in India - The Wire Science

In India, not all deaths are registered, and only a small fraction have an identified cause. This considerably increases the chances of missing COVID-19 deaths.

https://science.thewire.in/health/covid-19-mumbai-comorbid-fatality-criteria-missing-deaths-modelling/

So, are we nearing peak in Maharashtra? Modelling finds (unhelpfully) maybe, maybe not! Maharashtra's infections curve is disappointingly "straight". It could be flattening a bit. Four scenarios assuming a 0.5% fatality rate - with pictures - to follow...

#covid19maharashtra scenarios:
1. (Optimistic) Already peaked at about 0.76M infectious cases.
2. Peak end May at about 0.92M infectious cases.
3. Peak early-mid June at about 1.4M infectious cases.
4. (Pessimistic) Still no peak in mid-June. Almost 4M infectious cases by then.

Technical details of the simulations of Maharashtra's COVID19 epidemic in this thread.
http://maths.mdx.ac.uk/research/modelling-the-covid-19-pandemic/model-simulations-of-the-trajectory-of-covid-19-in-maharashtra/

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