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Ordinarily, it's easy to dismiss Biden's gaffes b/c they're priced into voters' expectations. But this one might be different: black voters are the margin in 5 of the 6 most critical Electoral prizes (FL, MI, NC, PA, WI) and Biden just handed Trump a new three-word fall meme.
Biden's base in the primaries was older African-Americans, who will vote for him overwhelmingly. The challenge for Biden remains younger black voters (esp. male) who liked/voted for Obama, didn't vote in 2016 and don't identify w/ either political party.
Trump has next to no appeal or credibility w/ this demographic. But his campaign’s goal will be to drive down Biden’s appeal w/ young black voters (1994 crime bill, Anita Hill, busing, etc.) to blur distinctions & depress turnout, as in 2016. It can work, and margins matter.
In other words: will “you ain’t black” be forgotten by the news cycle in a few days? Of course it will be. Should Dems be concerned about the Trump camp’s potential to weaponize it in targeted digital ads this fall? Absolutely.
I'm not talking about one gaffe producing some seismic shift in the black vote. Black voters are going to reject Trump by a massive margin.
But Biden winning 91%-7% w/ 60% turnout vs. 88%-10% w/ 55% turnout could be the difference in these key states. It was the margin in 2016.
But Biden winning 91%-7% w/ 60% turnout vs. 88%-10% w/ 55% turnout could be the difference in these key states. It was the margin in 2016.
