1/ The days are long, but the weeks are short...

It’s been almost two weeks (!!) since I last posted a thread about COVID19 trends in Oregon

So, what’s been happening? https://twitter.com/aoglasser/status/1259320096289243138?s=21
2/ on the last thread, I shared I was feeling less optimistic as cases did not appear to be decreasing but instead looked like it might have been increasing (pic below)

How am I currently feeling? Less pessimistic, though still tackling a lot of uncertainty about the future
3/ It looks like we have overall stabilized in terms of new cases per day (some day-to-day variation, generally ~60; only 9 new cases a few days ago, only 24 yesterday)

You can see the “bump” from 2weeks ago in pics

We are at 3817 cases and 145 deaths

6/ yesterday, @OHAOregon also announced another new profile tool!
🦠covid19 disease burden
🦠Severe covid19 burden (incl hospitalizations w/in last 28 days)
🦠Active monitoring capacity—SPEED OF FOLLOWUP FROM POSITIVE TEST (important to slow spread!)

7/ older Oregonians who are infected with COVID19 continue to have the highest rates of mortality

8/ nursing homes still hard hit-but last facility added to this list was on 5/9!

list look shorter?
“Facilities with outbreaks that are considered closed will be removed from this list...considered closed if there are no new cases identified for 28 days after the last case onset
9/ more from the @OHAoregon weekly data—
Hispanic Oregonians continue to be disproportionately affected, with 31.7% of cases which has steadily⬆️ from ~27% (v 13% of the State population). The case fatality rare in Black Oregonians is also concerning (3% State population)
12/ yesterday, Oregon reported the first covid-19 related death of an Adult In Custody (AIC) in an Oregon Department of Corrections Facility—an AIC at the Oregon State Penitentiary outside of Salem https://twitter.com/maxoregonian/status/1263564105350213633?s=21
13/ Oregon State Penitentiary (Oregon’s only maximum security prison) has 115 cases amongst AICs (I believe 2000 are there) and 26 staff, out of 148 AICs in Oregon correctional facilities and 38 correctional facility staff

14/ May 15th has come and gone, and almost all countries have entered or been approved to enter Phase 1 of “reopening”

31 of 36 counties entered phase 1 last week (recall, we have a lot of big rural counties)

Infographics from @OHAOregon—statewide and phase 1 information
15/ also from the new @OHAOregon dashboard out this week—the SIX county level indicators that will guide decisions about “reopening or stopping, watching, and redirecting”

I’ve highlighted two Portland metro area counties (have not entered phase 1)

18/ here’s another way to look at county-level trends (though as the new OHA dashboard shows, there are a lot of indicators that can be tracked).

I’ve highlighted the 5 Oregon counties that did not enter phase 1 in the first wave last week

19/ beyond Oregon, here’s a new and really cool way to visualize progress towards “reopening”—dashboard from @propublica

20/ interesting—how did #covid19 get here? (recall NYtimes article-most Oregon cases came via NY, not WA)

Potentially 13 introductions! Not 1-2 people
“the state’s outbreak may have one of the most diverse origin stories discovered to date in the U.S. https://news.ohsu.edu/2020/05/18/oregons-covid-19-story-emerges-from-gene-sequencing?linkId=88913128
21/ this was also fascinating

“Somewhat surprisingly to the team, there was no evidence that the first reported case in Oregon continued to spread.“

Have they not been found yet, or was the contact tracing & isolation related to that 1st case in February successful??
30/FIN and let’s end by celebrating ANOTHER successful #VoteByMail in Oregon this week—Because that’s how we always vote

With THREE #womeninmedicine physicians successful in their results!!

https://twitter.com/ormedicine/status/1263145409330855936?s=21 https://twitter.com/ormedicine/status/1263145409330855936
You can follow @aoglasser.
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