Thread by @aoglasser, 1/ The days are long, but the weeks are short...It’s been almost [...]

1/ The days are long, but the weeks are short...

It’s been almost two weeks (!!) since I last posted a thread about COVID19 trends in Oregon

So, what’s been happening? https://twitter.com/aoglasser/status/1259320096289243138?s=21

https://twitter.com/aoglasser/status/1259320096289243138?s=21

2/ on the last thread, I shared I was feeling less optimistic as cases did not appear to be decreasing but instead looked like it might have been increasing (pic below)

How am I currently feeling? Less pessimistic, though still tackling a lot of uncertainty about the future

3/ It looks like we have overall stabilized in terms of new cases per day (some day-to-day variation, generally ~60; only 9 new cases a few days ago, only 24 yesterday)

You can see the “bump” from 2weeks ago in pics

We are at 3817 cases and 145 deaths

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

4/ from the @OHAoregon profile tool, looking at testing and hospitalization trends

Testing

Hospitalizations

https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonHealthAuthorityCOVID-19DataDashboard/COVID-19EPIConfirmed?:display_count=y&:toolbar=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:showShareOptions=false

5/ Testing capacity

to nearly ~38,000 per week

delivery of testing supplies from fed government

more comprehensive list of testing options

“In the past week alone, about 20,000 Oregonians received test results, marking a record” https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/coronavirus-testing-capacity-surges-to-nearly-38000-tests-a-week-oregon-health-authority-says.html

Coronavirus testing capacity surges to nearly 38,000 tests a week, Oregon Health Authority says

Officials say federal supplies, and a new way of calculating the numbers, explain the jump.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/coronavirus-testing-capacity-surges-to-nearly-38000-tests-a-week-oregon-health-authority-says.html

6/ yesterday, @OHAOregon also announced another new profile tool!

covid19 disease burden

Severe covid19 burden (incl hospitalizations w/in last 28 days)

Active monitoring capacity—SPEED OF FOLLOWUP FROM POSITIVE TEST (important to slow spread!)

https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonCOVID-19PublicHealthIndicators/COVID-19Burden

7/ older Oregonians who are infected with COVID19 continue to have the highest rates of mortality

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Emerging%20Respitory%20Infections/COVID-19-Weekly-Report-2020-05-19-FINAL.pdf

8/ nursing homes still hard hit-but last facility added to this list was on 5/9!

list look shorter?
“Facilities with outbreaks that are considered closed will be removed from this list...considered closed if there are no new cases identified for 28 days after the last case onset

9/ more from the @OHAoregon weekly data—
Hispanic Oregonians continue to be disproportionately affected, with 31.7% of cases which has steadily

from ~27% (v 13% of the State population). The case fatality rare in Black Oregonians is also concerning (3% State population)

9/ more from the @OHAoregon weekly data—Hispanic Oregonians continue to be disproportionately affected, with 31.7% of cases which has steadily from ~27% (v 13% of the State population). The case fatality rare in Black Oregonians is also concerning (3% State population)

10/ in terms of other disparities—OHA continues to report zip code, and @_brad_schmidt continues to analyze for the Oregonian
yes, while zip code data has limitations (where you live, not where you shop/work/etc), less affluent neighborhoods=hit hard https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/coronavirus-infections-continue-to-rise-in-woodburn-east-portland-salem.html

Coronavirus infections continue to rise in Woodburn, east Portland, Salem

A Salem ZIP code home to the Oregon State Penitentiary now has the sixth-most cases.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/coronavirus-infections-continue-to-rise-in-woodburn-east-portland-salem.html

11/ and this article out yesterday from @mfriesen—another way to get more granular with the zip code based data and trends in potential disparities https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/10-oregon-zip-codes-where-coronavirus-cases-jumped-most-last-week.html

10 Oregon ZIP codes where coronavirus cases jumped most last week

The state of Oregon now releases COVID-19 cases by ZIP code.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/10-oregon-zip-codes-where-coronavirus-cases-jumped-most-last-week.html

12/ yesterday, Oregon reported the first covid-19 related death of an Adult In Custody (AIC) in an Oregon Department of Corrections Facility—an AIC at the Oregon State Penitentiary outside of Salem https://twitter.com/maxoregonian/status/1263564105350213633?s=21

https://twitter.com/maxoregonian/status/1263564105350213633?s=21

13/ Oregon State Penitentiary (Oregon’s only maximum security prison) has 115 cases amongst AICs (I believe 2000 are there) and 26 staff, out of 148 AICs in Oregon correctional facilities and 38 correctional facility staff

https://www.oregon.gov/doc/covid19/Pages/covid19-tracking.aspx

14/ May 15th has come and gone, and almost all countries have entered or been approved to enter Phase 1 of “reopening”

31 of 36 counties entered phase 1 last week (recall, we have a lot of big rural counties)

Infographics from @OHAOregon—statewide and phase 1 information

15/ also from the new @OHAOregon dashboard out this week—the SIX county level indicators that will guide decisions about “reopening or stopping, watching, and redirecting”

I’ve highlighted two Portland metro area counties (have not entered phase 1)

https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonCOVID-19PublicHealthIndicators/COVID-19Burden

16/ Marion County, which has been hard hit recently with new daily cases in the teens to 20s, though only 4 were announced yesterday—was just approved. Polk Co was also approved to reopen TODAY https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/oregon-governor-approves-phase-1-reopening-for-marion-polk-counties.html

Oregon governor approves Phase 1 reopening for Marion, Polk counties

The governor said the two counties can start reopening May 22

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/oregon-governor-approves-phase-1-reopening-for-marion-polk-counties.html

17/ other countries applying
Washington (Portland metro): to apply today
Clackamas (Portland metro): applied earlier this week
Multnomah (main Portland county and where I live and work): not yet applied https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/clackamas-county-submits-coronavirus-reopening-plan-washington-county-to-apply-friday.html

Clackamas County submits coronavirus reopening plan, Washington County to apply Friday

The counties are applying despite the fact that they have yet to meet criteria set out by Gov. Kate Brown.

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/clackamas-county-submits-coronavirus-reopening-plan-washington-county-to-apply-friday.html

18/ here’s another way to look at county-level trends (though as the new OHA dashboard shows, there are a lot of indicators that can be tracked).

I’ve highlighted the 5 Oregon counties that did not enter phase 1 in the first wave last week

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-by-your-locations/

19/ beyond Oregon, here’s a new and really cool way to visualize progress towards “reopening”—dashboard from @propublica

https://projects.propublica.org/reopening-america/

20/ interesting—how did #covid19 get here? (recall NYtimes article-most Oregon cases came via NY, not WA)

Potentially 13 introductions! Not 1-2 people
“the state’s outbreak may have one of the most diverse origin stories discovered to date in the U.S. https://news.ohsu.edu/2020/05/18/oregons-covid-19-story-emerges-from-gene-sequencing?linkId=88913128

Oregon’s COVID-19 story emerges from gene sequencing

16 genomes from OHSU show great diversity.

https://news.ohsu.edu/2020/05/18/oregons-covid-19-story-emerges-from-gene-sequencing?linkId=88913128

21/ this was also fascinating

“Somewhat surprisingly to the team, there was no evidence that the first reported case in Oregon continued to spread.“

Have they not been found yet, or was the contact tracing & isolation related to that 1st case in February successful??

22/ to wrap up, lets turn to more of the human elements and narratives of living with the #covid19 pandemic in Oregon

What was the reality of “reopening” (meaning entering Phase 1) like last weekend? https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/05/20/in-fits-and-starts-oregon-emerged-from-lockdown-last-weekend-heres-what-the-reopening-looked-like/

In Fits and Starts, Oregon Emerged From Lockdown Last Weekend. Here’s What the Reopening Looked...

https://www.wweek.com/news/2020/05/20/in-fits-and-starts-oregon-emerged-from-lockdown-last-weekend-heres-what-the-reopening-looked-like/

23/ for all the press about “get me my haircut”...a flip side of this discussion

“It’s dehumanizing to be told that our clients need to be six feet apart while we are right on top of them. Are we less human? Worth less?” “ https://www.pdxmonthly.com/news-and-city-life/2020/05/hundreds-of-local-stylists-say-its-too-dangerous-for-salons-to-reopen

Hundreds of Local Stylists Say It's Too Dangerous for Salons to Reopen

“It’s dehumanizing to be told that our clients need to be six feet apart while we are right on top of them. Are we less human? Worth less?”

https://www.pdxmonthly.com/news-and-city-life/2020/05/hundreds-of-local-stylists-say-its-too-dangerous-for-salons-to-reopen

24/ how affecting us emotionally?

“On a psychological level, this whole pandemic is about the issue of creating boundaries and dissolving boundaries, and it’s bringing to our attention the importance of both.”

@drjessigold @DrHowardLiu @DrPoorman https://www.pdxmonthly.com/health-and-wellness/2020/05/portland-couples-therapist-studies-the-impact-of-shelter-in-place-orders

Portland Couples Therapist Studies the Impact of Shelter-in-Place Orders

Jan Dworkin shares her thoughts on what we can learn from the coronavirus, couples, and “failed” relationships.

https://www.pdxmonthly.com/health-and-wellness/2020/05/portland-couples-therapist-studies-the-impact-of-shelter-in-place-orders

25/ so let’s wrap up with some good news
one of @OHSUNews first patients admitted was discharged after almost 2 months

She was one of 3 patients on ECMO at OHSU because of #covid19

@OhsuTrauma @OHSUPulmCCM @MackenzieCookMD https://news.ohsu.edu/2020/05/14/coronavirus-patient-discharged-after-58-days-at-ohsu

Coronavirus patient discharged after 58 days at OHSU

Washington woman survived after 30-day life support treatment.

https://news.ohsu.edu/2020/05/14/coronavirus-patient-discharged-after-58-days-at-ohsu

26/ @OregonGovBrown received HT in @AnnalsofIM blog post @TLeungMD @MAACPGovernor

“Gavin Newson (D-CA), Kate Brown (D-OR), and Jay Inslee (D-WA) announced that the decisions to reopen their states’ economies will be guided by science and data” http://freshlook.annals.org/2020/05/perpetuating-bias-dangers-of-incomplete-covid19-data.html

Annals of Internal Medicine: Fresh Look Blog: Perpetuating Bias: The Dangers of Incomplete COVID-19...

Amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, leaders and policymakers are looking for data to inform decision making. For instan...

http://freshlook.annals.org/2020/05/perpetuating-bias-dangers-of-incomplete-covid19-data.html

27/ as we enter the Memorial Day weekend, keep an eye out for Oregon gems and traditions that will start returning/reopening—AND for guidance for how to partake in them as safely as possible https://www.wweek.com/outdoors/2020/05/21/washington-park-is-reopening-the-roads-to-its-property-in-advance-of-memorial-day-weekend/

Roads Into Washington Park to Reopen for Memorial Day Weekend

Washington Park would normally be teaming with people during a three-day weekend, like the upcoming Memorial Day holiday. While you probably won’t find the typical crowds, the property is preparing...

https://www.wweek.com/outdoors/2020/05/21/washington-park-is-reopening-the-roads-to-its-property-in-advance-of-memorial-day-weekend/

28/ Be careful and cautious with how Memorial Day weekend and “reopening” will mesh—don’t overwhelm small towns or tourist destinations https://www.wweek.com/outdoors/2020/05/21/the-governor-and-more-than-two-dozen-mayors-urge-oregonians-to-not-travel-on-memorial-day-weekend/

The Governor and More Than Two Dozen Mayors Urge Oregonians Not to Travel on Memorial Day Weekend

Gov. Kate Brown and more than two dozen mayors from across the state have an urgent message for all Oregonaians as we approach the unofficial kickoff to summer: Keep your Memorial Day weekend...

https://www.wweek.com/outdoors/2020/05/21/the-governor-and-more-than-two-dozen-mayors-urge-oregonians-to-not-travel-on-memorial-day-weekend/

29/ look forward to some other Oregon traditions coming back this summer in modified formats! https://www.pdxmonthly.com/eat-and-drink/2020/05/you-can-still-pick-your-own-fruit-at-oregon-farms-this-summer

You Can Still Pick Your Own Fruit at Oregon Farms This Summer

Goodbye for a few months, Driscoll's—Oregon strawberries are coming in hot.

https://www.pdxmonthly.com/eat-and-drink/2020/05/you-can-still-pick-your-own-fruit-at-oregon-farms-this-summer

30/FIN and let’s end by celebrating ANOTHER successful #VoteByMail in Oregon this week—Because that’s how we always vote

With THREE #womeninmedicine physicians successful in their results!!

https://twitter.com/ormedicine/status/1263145409330855936?s=21 https://twitter.com/ormedicine/status/1263145409330855936