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These results are consistent w/ Biden leading Trump nationally by ~8 points, the worst margin for an incumbent president at this point in the election cycle going back at least to the 1940s. Reconcilable only with Biden's odds being much higher than Clinton's at this pt in 2016. https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/1262785406963077120
This + the AZ poll today make clear that Trump is a huge underdog for November, and narratives otherwise are not supported by the data
Sorry folks, this just isn't right -- at this point in 2016 Clinton was polling ~3 points ahead of Trump. Biden is up by 8 today https://twitter.com/MyNameIsSome0ne/status/1262789020964323332?s=20
idk what you're talking about, the education split on the Civiqs poll is right on target (the AZ poll is not, but we're correcting for this in our models) https://twitter.com/Gosspaine/status/1262790034446401547?s=20
the education split on the civiqs poll is right on target
