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#COVID19 in Delhi. The question is not whether the Delhi govt is underreporting #COVID19 deaths, but by how much? I'll examine this with press reports and modelling. Conclusion: Delhi #COVID19 transparency is even worse than Maharashtra's. 1/7
Striking fact today which set this off: 26% of migrant workers returning from Delhi to Bihar tested so far were COVID positive. That's high, even bearing in mind that this is a population with poor living conditions, and more likely to get the disease. 2/7 https://twitter.com/sanjayjavin/status/1262267513393557505
In my piece for @TheWireScience on Maharashtra, it was the sudden *drop* in death rate which stood out. I wrote that I hadn't noticed this in other states. But I hadn't looked carefully enough at Delhi at the time of writing, and so missed that story. 3/7 https://twitter.com/TheWireScience/status/1261194107776622592
Here's what preliminary plots and simulations show for Delhi. From about 17/04/20 there is a marked slowing in deaths. This happens a little earlier in testing data too, but a smaller effect. From 17/04 onwards, reported (red) and predicted (green) #COVID19 deaths diverge. 4/7
Reported Delhi #COVID19 deaths continued to diverge from predictions from 17/04/20 until a correction around 11/05/20. By coincidence (irony alert!), a few days earlier, media outlets started claiming the Delhi govt was underreporting COVID19 deaths. 5/7 https://thewire.in/government/delhi-government-casualty-hospitals-data
Optimistic simulations (assuming honest testing data and successful lockdown) say that by 17/05/20 there should have been ~500 deaths in Delhi. On 14/05, @IndianExpress reported there had been 410 funerals in the city following COVID protocols. 6/7 https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/in-two-months-410-funerals-in-the-city-as-per-covid-sop/
On 17/05/20 Delhi had reported ~150 #COVID19 deaths: modelling says that's 350 or so unreported deaths. The Delhi govt has decided to sort it out... by no longer testing for #COVID19 after a death. Suppression. Not of #COVID19, but of information. 7/7 https://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-will-no-longer-test-for-covid-after-person-death-6415454/
A page with more detail on the simulations + model-based estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Delhi. E.g., if we assume an infection fatality rate of 0.5%, then there have been to date ~2.5 lakh infections in Delhi, with ~80K of these currently active.
http://maths.mdx.ac.uk/research/modelling-the-covid-19-pandemic/the-delhi-covid-19-epidemic-so-far-missing-fatalities/
http://maths.mdx.ac.uk/research/modelling-the-covid-19-pandemic/the-delhi-covid-19-epidemic-so-far-missing-fatalities/
What I understand from this thread: many of the deaths "missing" from Delhi's official COVID-19 count were actually tested and verified COVID-19 deaths, not just suspected COVID-19 deaths... https://twitter.com/appriseParas/status/1262758352683012097
