Taking the live interview polls this month, we& #39;ve got CNN at Biden+5 (v. long term avg Biden+9), Monmouth at Biden+9 (long term +3.5), and Marquette in WI at Biden+3 (long term +2).
Put it together, you& #39;ve got a largely unchanged race; if you had to squint, maybe Biden up a pt

And let& #39;s not waste any of our time on unbalanced battleground subsamples from national polls.

And let& #39;s not waste any of our time making inferences about the presidential race from low turnout specials, whether it& #39;s a decent result for Dems in WI07 (let alone the WI supreme court race held on a D primary night) or a good result for the GOP in CA25 https://twitter.com/NICKBKNYUSA/status/1260592176091803651?s=20">https://twitter.com/NICKBKNYU...

And let us recall that this pattern may be driven in part by the partisanship of low turnout voters who sit out specials (young, Hispanic voters in CA; white, working class voters in WI), and who will vote in higher numbers in November https://twitter.com/UrsoEsq/status/1260594004305076229?s=20">https://twitter.com/UrsoEsq/s...