Taking the live interview polls this month, we've got CNN at Biden+5 (v. long term avg Biden+9), Monmouth at Biden+9 (long term +3.5), and Marquette in WI at Biden+3 (long term +2).
Put it together, you've got a largely unchanged race; if you had to squint, maybe Biden up a pt

And let's not waste any of our time on unbalanced battleground subsamples from national polls.

And let's not waste any of our time making inferences about the presidential race from low turnout specials, whether it's a decent result for Dems in WI07 (let alone the WI supreme court race held on a D primary night) or a good result for the GOP in CA25 https://twitter.com/NICKBKNYUSA/status/1260592176091803651?s=20

And let us recall that this pattern may be driven in part by the partisanship of low turnout voters who sit out specials (young, Hispanic voters in CA; white, working class voters in WI), and who will vote in higher numbers in November https://twitter.com/UrsoEsq/status/1260594004305076229?s=20