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ERRORS 101
Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat tailed domain, rather show statistical properties.
Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts.
These errors are promoted by the Idiot of Pennsylvania, Phil the rat
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="đ" title="Mouse" aria-label="Emoji: Mouse"> Tetlock @PTetlock. https://twitter.com/mattwridley/status/1259898818017058818">https://twitter.com/mattwridl...
Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat tailed domain, rather show statistical properties.
Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts.
These errors are promoted by the Idiot of Pennsylvania, Phil the rat
Paper with @DrCirillo forthcoming in Nature Physics later this week explaining the point, @mattwridley. Tail exponent <1, even possibly <½ means NEVER issue a single point forecast and NEVER present an average.
For pandemics if the average exists, about ~95-99.9% of observations would fall BELOW the average. Aside from the slow workings of the law of large numbers.
Should I explain this in a short video?
Should I explain this in a short video?
Voila https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw&feature=youtu.be">https://www.youtube.com/watch... https://www.youtube.com/watch...
