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The problem for the govt is that all of these things are true:
1. At some point the costs of lockdown become unsustainable
2. Therefore at some point they have to ease lockdown
3. No one knows when this point is
4. Much of the public rejects (1) and (2)
1/?
1. At some point the costs of lockdown become unsustainable
2. Therefore at some point they have to ease lockdown
3. No one knows when this point is
4. Much of the public rejects (1) and (2)
1/?
2/?
5. Many of those who don't reject (1) and (2) don't trust the govt to get the trade-off right
6. Much of this distrust stems from an understandable belief the govt got the tradeoff wrong in Feb-March
...
5. Many of those who don't reject (1) and (2) don't trust the govt to get the trade-off right
6. Much of this distrust stems from an understandable belief the govt got the tradeoff wrong in Feb-March
...
7. Many of those arguing most vocally for early end to lockdown have credibility problems and/or obvious political/ideological motivations (Toby Young, Telegraph Comment page, Trump
8. Many of the loudest voices on the "indefinite lockdown" side have much higher public trust
8. Many of the loudest voices on the "indefinite lockdown" side have much higher public trust
9. Whenever lockdown is eased, and whatever route the easing takes, people will die and voters will (understandably) blame the govt for that
10. The harms associated with not easing lockdown are more diffuse, and often set in later. Blame equation more complicated
10. The harms associated with not easing lockdown are more diffuse, and often set in later. Blame equation more complicated
5/? Taking all these together, if we assume a pessimistic scenario where there's no vaccine available for several years at least, and treatment options remain limited (a scenario I very much hope we avoid), then the govt faces a nightmare scenario...
6/? At some point they will have to ease back lockdown, and when they do they will face intense criticism for doing so. Their critics will have higher credibility and trust than their defenders, and the costs of easing lockdown will be clearer & more obvious than the benefits
7/? Yet at some point, they will have to do this, because at some point remaining in lockdown becomes unsustainable. What's their best strategy for managing such a scenario if it comes to pass?
(PS I'm not suggesting the govt's response & comms to date has been optimal, quite the opposite. Failures to date on that front have deepened this dilemma).
Also for clarification - by “at some point” lockdown becomes unsustainable I mean potentially years from now, not weeks or months. What we have now can’t operste permanently.
