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Over the past couple of weeks, I've had a number of media calls on the potential for 'ineligible' CERB applications. These are often backed by anecdotes.
I don't doubt the anecdotes!
But now we have some data from today's LFS, so let's gauge magnitudes....
I don't doubt the anecdotes!
But now we have some data from today's LFS, so let's gauge magnitudes....
From @paulvieira we see that 36.7% of the labour force is either out of work, or on reduced (<50%) hours.
The labour force is 18.6MM, so that's 6.8MM. https://twitter.com/paulvieira/status/1258746662195007495
The labour force is 18.6MM, so that's 6.8MM. https://twitter.com/paulvieira/status/1258746662195007495
So, 6.8MM are out of work or on <50% of hours.
Some of these are ineligible for CERB because they're earning >$1K. Others are ineligible because they didn't satisfy some requirements.
But let's just take note that 6.8MM have taken a big hit to labour market activity.
Some of these are ineligible for CERB because they're earning >$1K. Others are ineligible because they didn't satisfy some requirements.
But let's just take note that 6.8MM have taken a big hit to labour market activity.
Now let's look at CERB. On April 16th (which was partway through the week covered by the LFS), CERB had 6.4MM unique applicants.
@BrendonBernard_ captured this for us. https://twitter.com/BrendonBernard_/status/1251178804674023424
@BrendonBernard_ captured this for us. https://twitter.com/BrendonBernard_/status/1251178804674023424
So, we have 6.8MM people taking a big hit to their labour, as of mid-April.
We have 6.4MM on CERB, as of mid-April.
Does this mean there was no 'fraud' or dishonest attestations? No.
But it does mean that the scale of CERB takeups is consistent with hit to the labour market.
We have 6.4MM on CERB, as of mid-April.
Does this mean there was no 'fraud' or dishonest attestations? No.
But it does mean that the scale of CERB takeups is consistent with hit to the labour market.
