For Biden, winning MI & PA are virtual prerequisites for getting to 270 EVs. From there, AZ & WI remain most likely states to put him over the top (AZ may even > WI).

He'll also obviously compete in FL & NC, Trump's two must-win "core battleground" states...

But to me, the biggest decision for Team Biden is how much to invest in TX & GA, perhaps his two next most winnable states. Both would require a huge & early investment in registration, digital, etc.

To me, that's where Bloomberg's thinking & $$ is the biggest variable.

If you don't think Bloomberg's $$ can be effective moving votes in the "pro-gun" South/Sun Belt, just look to 2018, when his spending helped Dems win House seats in suburbs of Atlanta, Dallas, Houston & even Oklahoma City. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/30/us/politics/michael-bloomberg-democrats-donate.html